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Put this Commodity at the Top of Your Wish List
by Robert Williams, Publisher
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Capital shortfalls are always met with cost-cutting measures. Period.
And when the credit markets froze up last year, cash became harder to come by than a popsicle stand in the desert.
On the personal level, plans for upscale amenities like country club memberships, Jacuzzis and granite countertops were quickly tabled…
Manufacturing and industry saw the cuts come mostly in the form of layoffs. (The unemployment rate is expected to stay near 10% throughout most of the year.)
Exploration companies had fewer mines go on-line.
Retailers collectively cut their inventory to historical lows.
Farmers skimped on fertilizer, presenting a particularly unique opportunity for profits.
You see, you can only hold the purse strings on fertilizer for so long before the depleted ground yields less grain. Forget supply and demand, we’re talking about Mother Nature here.
But that’s exactly the situation we find ourselves in.
As the global economy revs up again, and food demand rises, we’re looking at a full-blown supply shock in the grains market (corn, soybeans and wheat). Throw in the under-the-radar – but very real – worldwide water shortage, and the situation gets even dicier.
(The upcoming issue of The Oxford Club Communiqué will have my full report.)
From a fundamental point of view, grain prices look to be a sure bet to appreciate in the year ahead. When the technicals jive too, we’ll get word from our commodities expert, Lee Lowell. But today, Lee has a different commodities offensive cued up, specifically the best ways to play gold, oil and the orange juice market.
Ahead of the tape,
Robert Williams
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One Response to “Put this Commodity at the Top of Your Wish List”
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In addition to once being a full-time trader of equities and equity derivatives, Robert Williams has served as the lead financial analyst for a Forbes top-50 private corporation and an analyst for the endowment of a major academic institution. He's also been profiled in such books as Trade with Passion and Purpose and Alexander Green's The Secret of Shelter Island. 
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January 13th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
Hi there, great post, but I have to say that I think you’re jumping the gun on the supply shock. Yesterday’s news out of Washington was that Corn and Soybean crops were at a RECORD high, and prices of both commodities completely bottomed out. Further, the dollar is so weak right now that prices were likely artificially high to begin with and continuee to be so. I would argue that for 2010, grains prices have nowhere to go but down. I covered this today in a post on asset prime:
http://assetprime.blogspot.com/2010/01/us-government-to-grains-speculators.html
Keep up the great work on the blog, I always enjoy your analysis.
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