Comments on: The End of the Recession: A New Indicator Predicts With Startling Accuracy http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html Investment Advice and Investment Research with a Contrarian Point of View Fri, 19 Mar 2010 19:55:11 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.3 hourly 1 By: Steven http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-12767 Steven Mon, 15 Jun 2009 13:18:18 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-12767 Sooo much done on this already Sooo much done on this already

]]> By: ian http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-12152 ian Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:13:14 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-12152 The flaw in this argument lies in the phrase, "regardless of detail." This is the central delusion inculcated by business schools worldwide. MBAs and financiers would love to live in a world where they needn't bother to understand the messy complex details of the businesses and/or financial instruments in which they invest. And hasn't *that* worked out well for everyone? All of the above mentioned crises, were, in comparison to what faces us now, relatively small, numerically speaking. As Jack Erb pointed out, there remains about $850 trillion in notional OTC derivatives exposure worldwide (a.k.a. "The elephant in the room"). While some would claim this is a notional value and is (ahem) "revenue neutral," it doesn't matter. Even small changes in the economy can trigger unpredictibly large changes through the mechanism of custom derivatives. As long as this condition exists, all bets are off regarding a recovery. The flaw in this argument lies in the phrase, “regardless of detail.” This is the central delusion inculcated by business schools worldwide.

MBAs and financiers would love to live in a world where they needn’t bother to understand the messy complex details of the businesses and/or financial instruments in which they invest.

And hasn’t *that* worked out well for everyone?

All of the above mentioned crises, were, in comparison to what faces us now, relatively small, numerically speaking. As Jack Erb pointed out, there remains about $850 trillion in notional OTC derivatives exposure worldwide (a.k.a. “The elephant in the room”).

While some would claim this is a notional value and is (ahem) “revenue neutral,” it doesn’t matter. Even small changes in the economy can trigger unpredictibly large changes through the mechanism of custom derivatives. As long as this condition exists, all bets are off regarding a recovery.

]]> By: Adam http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-12146 Adam Mon, 08 Jun 2009 15:25:41 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-12146 There is not nearly enough data points here "4 out of the last 5" .. please! What abt the GE and Chrysler bankruptcy ripple affect in jobs that will be felt in the coming weeks and months?! I think a better indicator is CONTINUING claims which keep going up meaning people are on unemployment and can't get a job! And of course in a few months when the 1st clip of lay offs start coming to the end of their unemployment coverage perious these numbers may "seem" to level off but thats just a farce .. There is not nearly enough data points here “4 out of the last 5″ .. please! What abt the GE and Chrysler bankruptcy ripple affect in jobs that will be felt in the coming weeks and months?! I think a better indicator is CONTINUING claims which keep going up meaning people are on unemployment and can’t get a job!
And of course in a few months when the 1st clip of lay offs start coming to the end of their unemployment coverage perious these numbers may “seem” to level off but thats just a farce ..

]]> By: Josh http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11820 Josh Thu, 04 Jun 2009 20:24:33 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11820 Ridiculous tripe. "New" indicator? "the market is always ahead of the economy"? "a wealth of evidence [that] suggests this is not a false peak"? This sort of wide-eyed prediction is just wishful thinking, drawing false conclusions about correlation from tiny datasets, and pandering to the innate human need to be right. The market will do what it will do, and trying to predict the future is a game of chance, nothing more. Real market wizards understand this. Enjoy the spoils of foolishness. Ridiculous tripe. “New” indicator? “the market is always ahead of the economy”? “a wealth of evidence [that] suggests this is not a false peak”?

This sort of wide-eyed prediction is just wishful thinking, drawing false conclusions about correlation from tiny datasets, and pandering to the innate human need to be right. The market will do what it will do, and trying to predict the future is a game of chance, nothing more. Real market wizards understand this. Enjoy the spoils of foolishness.

]]> By: Bulldung http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11779 Bulldung Thu, 04 Jun 2009 03:04:00 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11779 Gordon states in the article that the data from which he draws the conclusion is available from 1967, thus 1929- is not included. BD Gordon states in the article that the data from which he draws the conclusion is available from 1967, thus 1929- is not included. BD

]]> By: Besar http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11682 Besar Wed, 03 Jun 2009 01:50:48 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11682 I guess if you call December 2008 a peak in Initial Jobless Claims, then the April 2009 looks like a peak as well. NOT I guess if you call December 2008 a peak in Initial Jobless Claims, then the April 2009 looks like a peak as well. NOT

]]> By: Aktier: Handelsmønstre & Tendenser uge 22/2009 - Aktier, Aktiehandel, Aktienyt, Aktieanbefalinger - STOCKBLOG.DK http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11492 Aktier: Handelsmønstre & Tendenser uge 22/2009 - Aktier, Aktiehandel, Aktienyt, Aktieanbefalinger - STOCKBLOG.DK Sun, 31 May 2009 09:01:35 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11492 [...] InvestmentU fra tirsdag sættes antallet af førstegangs-arbejdsløse i USA (”initial jobless claims”) i [...] [...] InvestmentU fra tirsdag sættes antallet af førstegangs-arbejdsløse i USA (”initial jobless claims”) i [...]

]]> By: G. Kaiser http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11446 G. Kaiser Sat, 30 May 2009 17:51:20 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11446 It is not called a sucker's rally for nothing. That is not to say that suckers are stupid, but to see your way through this, you need to have a firm idea about what is going on, and, of course, you ultimately have to be right too. This is a rally built on desperate hopes on inflating an economy ruined by the richest in the world. I am not going to support them with my hard earned cash, I buy gold. I can't eat gold, i hear you say, but you try and eat you certificates and your paper money, they won't do either. The economy is run by criminals, they have already stolen most of your savings, they will be back for the rest! It is not called a sucker’s rally for nothing. That is not to say that suckers are stupid, but to see your way through this, you need to have a firm idea about what is going on, and, of course, you ultimately have to be right too.
This is a rally built on desperate hopes on inflating an economy ruined by the richest in the world. I am not going to support them with my hard earned cash, I buy gold.
I can’t eat gold, i hear you say, but you try and eat you certificates and your paper money, they won’t do either.
The economy is run by criminals, they have already stolen most of your savings, they will be back for the rest!

]]> By: Dave http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11139 Dave Wed, 27 May 2009 03:20:09 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11139 I am not as optimistic. We are going to have to reduce or staff 10-15%. The business is not there and our projects are longer term. Some of our sub suppliers have already taken major action. We are a manufacturer of heavy machinery. The next round will be flesh and bone. I am not as optimistic. We are going to have to reduce or staff 10-15%. The business is not there and our projects are longer term. Some of our sub suppliers have already taken major action.
We are a manufacturer of heavy machinery. The next round will be flesh and bone.

]]> By: Edward Huggins http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11131 Edward Huggins Tue, 26 May 2009 23:47:12 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/May/the-end-of-the-recession.html#comment-11131 1. In the "Gone Fishing Portfolio" book, the performance through 2007 was provided. What was the performance for 2008, compared to the S&P 500 Index? 2. How did this portfolio compare to Sjuggerud's "225-day" moving average Buy/Sell signal since 2000? Note: Both answers to be based on Total Returns. Thanks, Ed Huggins 1. In the “Gone Fishing Portfolio” book, the performance through 2007 was provided. What was the performance for 2008, compared to the S&P 500 Index?

2. How did this portfolio compare to Sjuggerud’s “225-day” moving average Buy/Sell signal since 2000?
Note: Both answers to be based on Total Returns.

Thanks,

Ed Huggins

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