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Warren Buffett’s 2008 Letter to Shareholders: Bearish or Bullish?
by Louis Basenese, Advisory Panelist
Senior Analyst, The Oxford Club
Wednesday, March 4, 2009: Issue #948
Details of Warren Buffett’s 2008 Letter to Shareholders have been grossly exaggerated. Most media outlets – financial and mainstream alike – opted for the anti-Bing Crosby angle – accentuating the negative, and virtually eliminating the positive.
In fact, every article I read couldn’t keep from latching on to this single doom and gloom line: “We’re certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles in 2009 – and, for that matter, probably well beyond.”
But don’t be so quick to label Mr. Buffett as a sudden convert to the permabear camp. A careful study of his most recent letter – because they all warrant much more than a casual read – reveals he is unmistakably optimistic and bullish about the future for the markets.
4 Reasons Warren Buffett Loves Stocks… And You Should, Too!
To be clear, I’m not suggesting we’ve hit the bottom after Monday’s 299-point rout. No one will know for sure until it’s too late. Instead, I’m proposing we’re darn near close. And albeit this is an unpopular stance, I’ll take comfort knowing Warren Buffett is on my side…
1. “America’s best days lie ahead.” (pg. 3)
There is no way to misinterpret this line. As Mr. Buffett advises, “Never forget that our country has faced far worse travails in the past.” Like wars, panics, recessions, “virulent inflation” and a Great Depression. And “without fail… we’ve overcome them.” This time will be no exception. And as Mr. Buffett revealed in his October New York Times Op-ed, he’s deploying up to 100% of his portfolio to stand by this conviction.
2. “Stocks recover before the economy.” (pg. 4)
You’ve no doubt heard this market wisdom before. But it’s true. Data back to 1900 confirms stock markets tend to bottom four to six months before the end of a recession. And Mr. Buffett reminds us of the same, when he explains the economy “will be in shambles throughout 2009… but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall.” In other words, the market’s forward-looking tendency could result in a rally while the economy still sputters along.
3. “When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy.” (pg. 5).
No doubt we’re in a period of extreme pessimism. It’s yet to be determined if we’ve hit the point of “maximum pessimism” ala John Templeton. Nevertheless, as Mr. Buffett realizes, and so should we, “The disarray in markets [gives] us a tailwind in our purchases.” Or as Alex Green wrote on Monday, “From these depressed levels, stocks will almost certainly deliver generous returns in the years ahead.”
4. “Clinging to cash is a ‘terrible policy’.” (pg. 16)
The temptation to retreat into or cling onto cash is great right now. But it’s a “terrible policy if continued for long,” says Mr. Buffett. It yields close to nothing and purchasing power will surely be eroded. That’s why Mr. Buffett “is always a buyer of both businesses and securities.” Given his 44-year track record, with only two down years, we should take heed and be just as acquisitive.
But where should we invest to weather the tail end of the storm and position our portfolios to profit? Here, too, it pays to take cues from Mr. Buffett…
Warren Buffett: The Ultimate Dividend Investor
Aside from Warren Buffett’s self-professed blunders in 2008 – investing in ConocoPhillips and “two Irish banks that appeared cheap to me” – Mr. Buffett made four investments that will stand the test of time, although they’ve largely been forgotten.
He purchased $15.5 billion worth of income-generating securities from Wrigley, Goldman Sachs, Constellation Energy and General Electric.
Without getting into the specifics of each deal, just realize this, he’s earning above average yields: Wrigley (9.4%), Goldman Sachs (10%), Constellation Energy (14%) and General Electric (10%) – without taking big risks.
Case in point, he’s not impacted one bit by GE’s recent 68% dividend cut (which I predicted here) because he invested in preferred stock.
I don’t have to tell you that we don’t have access or the resources to capitalize on such sweetheart deals. But we can get pretty close…
All we have to do is buy recession-proof businesses, with decades of dependable cash flows, little or no debt, steadily increasing earnings and paying handsome dividends. That’s a tall order, I know. But such companies do exist.
And forget that dividend investing is not glamorous. No one ever graced the cover of Forbes for his or her sanguine dividend-stock picking skills. But that’s a good thing, as Warren Buffett explains, “Beware the investment activity that produces applause; the great moves are usually greeted by yawns.”
Next week, I’ll detail exactly how to find total yawners in this market that pay a hefty, yet safe, dividend and come with a nice equity kicker, too.
So stay tuned.
Good investing,
Lou Basenese
Today’s Investment U Crib Sheet
Warren Buffett’s track record at Berkshire Hathaway is impressive regardless of your investment standards, being beaten by the S&P 500 in only 6 out of the last 43 years. Take a look at his performance below…
- Warren Buffett’s Investment Strategy: Time to Buy the Ultimate No-Brainer
- Warren Buffett Investing: Welcome to the Oracle of Omaha’s “Long, Deep Recession”
- Investing Like Warren Buffett: Take Your Cue From the World’s Best Investor
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10 Responses to “Warren Buffett’s 2008 Letter to Shareholders: Bearish or Bullish?”
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In addition to being the foremast expert on small-cap stocks, Louis is also well versed in special situations including IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, spinoffs and contrarian investments. His commentary has been featured in several media outlets, including MarketWatch. And he's also a top-rated speaker at financial conferences throughout the country. 
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March 4th, 2009 at 11:24 am
I believe your very accurate.. i am a believer.I APPRECIATE all things from the investment u..
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March 4th, 2009 at 11:32 am
Excellent article. Buffett is right so much more than he is wrong.Some of his missed purchases in the past few months remind me of when he purchased his share in the Wash Post in the early 70’s After he bought in the price proceeded to go down just as it did while he was buying many other stocks.Bukt then several years later, guess what, they were up and he was rolling. The one trait that he has mastered is to take his emotions out of the investment and wait for it to pan out. He does not buy at the top and he does not buy at the bottom. I think that we all wish that we had the control that he does.
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March 4th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
My portfolio manager got me out of bank stocks in January and bought GE bonds at the same time as Buffet. GE stock then dropped. I then insisted on putting most of my cash in BKH B shares. They dropped too. But truth is I feel better now and that’s what counts in investing.
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March 4th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
I own BRK.B shares. Buffett is right the market will grow due to increase in money supply. Money supply increase dictates purchasing power (inflation) will eventually take place. Market will bounce before year-end possibly 25%. Will still be down for the year. The 401K effect is behind us, no technology on the horizon sufficient to increase the market; therfeore, don’t expect more than 5% returns on market long term including dividends. Buffett has made this clear in his dicount models.
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March 8th, 2009 at 3:05 am
What goes up must come down, like a jetliner, however when it crashes it, like the current markets, will not fly again for a long time if the plane cain be repaired. Can the current markets be repaired and how long will it take? Or is the the plane a write off
and is the current market crash so severe, that repairs will take a very long time if repairs are at all possible. can President Obama fix the problem or are his promises just another socialist dream. i made my moves starting 3 years ago, today it would have been too late to fix the damage. Luckily I foresaw it all coming, pity the experts did not see it. Good luck America
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March 8th, 2009 at 9:07 am
Quid pro quo, KPMG, tax shelters, audits of DOJ and unemployment. U-6 unemployment is 15% yet KPMG remains employed by many of its clients including the DOJ. Word on the street is KPMG’s revenues are down at least $300 million which seems low given the number of failed financial institutions KPMG audits whose financial statements were riddled with tax fraud (at least according to Mike Hamersley) and accounting fraud (which apparently only the markets could figure out, right Citi). When are the massive layoffs at KPMG going to start as apparently accounting fraud is out of vogue? Word on the street is KPMG not only audits a disproportionate amount of Insurance companies engaging in accounting fraud and tax fraud but KPMG’s own purported Bermudian fraudulent Captive insurance company, Park, was engaging in accounting and massive tax fraud. How can this be? KPMG as part of its deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ was given the audit of the DOJ, perhaps, a quid pro quo for KPMG agreeing to throw several of its tax partners under the bus and destroying theirs’ and their families lives, pay a large fine, be monitored by a fellow who used to work for the government as head of the SEC, Breeden (millions in fees earned by a former government official (more quid pro quo)); a deal struck by Flynn, Loonan, Bennett, Taft and Holmes. Which partners will KPMG throw under the bus next to help in avoiding indictment by the DOJ for the massive $100s of Billions in accounting fraud KPMG assisted their financial clients in purveying against the public and the markets. Is it possible the KPMG partners believe that since KPMG audits the DOJ the massive accounting fraud they purveyed will be allowed? Are the DOJ accounting statements riddled with fraud like most of KPMG’s clients? If I were a KPMG partner I would not count on it judging by what the U.S. Government did to Sadam once a good friend of the U.S., is the same type of devastation and destruction coming to KPMG? Word on the street is KPMG through its captive insurance company, Park, not only defrauded its partners (and the KPMG Board of Directors) by kiting current legal claims into insurance liabilities with the help of none other than AIG but committed massive tax fraud itself with the approval of KPMG’s internal legal counsel Loonan and Taft . In fact, the world renowned whistleblower Mike Hamersley testified to the Senate and DOJ, that the type of “tax structuring” KPMG’s captive insurance company entered into (and many of KPMG’s clients) was in fact, tax fraud. And believe me, Hamersley claims he knows tax fraud when he sees it since while at KPMG he purveyed much of this type of tax fraud for his clients, the very same tax fraud he decried to the Senate and DOJ about while destroying the lives of many families, the emails are there for the world to see yet no one looks, why? Does KPMG believe it and its partners are immune from prosecution for continued and massive accounting and tax fraud because of the “deal” it struck to audit the DOJ? If the U.S. government’s behavior in the past towards its presumed friends, KPMG should not count on it and if you are a partner at KPMG that purveyed accounting and tax fraud (at least according to Hamersley), you can only expect to be thrown under the bus for a life of ass raping just like KPMG, Flynn, Loonan, Bennett, Taft and Holmes did to its tax partners (over rather trivial sums compared to the massive financial fraud presently destroying this country). Of course there may be hope since Hamersley a tax fraudster by his own definition has a high level government job destroying lives over the very same type of tax fraud he used to commit not withstanding the fact the government knows he committed tax fraud (based on Hamersley’s own emails), Quid pro quo?
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Tax partner Reply:
March 31st, 2009 at 9:23 am
Thoureau, please help me out here. I am a bit confused by your statements about Hamersley. I read Travails in Tax and personally observed Hamersley’s testimony before the Senate Finance Committee. He seems like an exceedingly honest guy to me. Didn’t KPMG say Hamersely had absolutely no involvement or knowledge of tax shelters in its press release to the Senate Finace Committee after Hamersley testified in October 2003? I read that KPMG press release on the PBS Frontline website. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/tax/interviews/release.html. By the way, you seem to be the same blogger going by the name “whistelwhat” on other blogs. Am I mistaken?
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Thoureau, I Concur With Tax Partner Reply:
April 8th, 2009 at 8:57 am
Thoreau, (and Whistlewhat, Angry Citi Investor, Angry Citi Shareholder–I have to admit it is difficult to keep track of all the aliases you are using to post identical comments while appearing to be different bloggers. Do you talk to yourself also?)
I agree. Your comments about Hamersely just don’t make any sense at all. I too am highly skeptical that your bold statements about Hamersley could be based on any reliable evidence at all. I also read Travails in Tax and personally observed Hamersley’s testimony before the Senate Finance Committee. He does clearly seem to be an exceedingly honest guy to me. Yeah, how do you explain that KPMG stated Hamersely had absolutely no involvement or knowledge of tax shelters in its press release to the Senate Finace Committee after Hamersley testified in October 2003? http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/tax/interviews/release.html See also Hamersley Senate Finance Committee Testimony 003 TNT 204-35 online at http://finance.senate.gov/hearings/testimony/2003test/102103mhtest.pdf
Are you suggesting Hamersley and KPMG are in cahoots? Wow, that would be a bold strategy seeing as Hamersley sued the crap out of them. Case No. BC 297209, Los Angeles Superior Court (June 23, 2003.), also reported in Tax Notes Today full copy of complaint 2003 TNT 124-5.
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March 8th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
Lou, a couple of things it’s not hard to be negative when you are well in the later years of your life and you have had a successful investment career and have more money than 95% of most investor’s.Also, these times are not the same,that is what trips every generation up.Our debt is 385% to equity compared to 300% in 1930. Most peopel do not do manual labor like they did in the 30’s, with a farm background.We have a large population that is here illegally and are not paying taxes, I could go on and on.The point is these times are not like before there has never been this much debt and loss of jobs so far in the history of this country. glad to here you are working though.Keep up the good job.
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March 16th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
With all due respect to all opinions,I only look to the charts, for I believe they have all emotional and logical expectations condensed.
And my charts of indices,indicators and the like are all BEARISH to put it mildly.
Support lines are lost, breakouts are all downward and the search for a bottom is each time deeper….
I know everybody (including myself) is tired of bad news, but I`m afraid the worst is still to come.
In such a situation, investors should have no stocks, but cash, at least for the next months….
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