Plug-In Electric Vehicles

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Plug-In Electric Vehicles: In Search of the Mass-Produced Hybrid

by David Fessler, Advisory Panelist
Saturday, June 27, 2009: Issue #1028

We found out that Tesla Motors joined the growing list of automakers receiving federal funds this week. It locked up $465 million to develop and produce battery-powered vehicles.

But as we know too well, large government checks are hardly ever the answer to our problems. And one of the biggest right now is that we’re seeing gas prices climb slowly higher.

While $147-a-barrel oil served as a wake-up call for the car-driving consumer, it was also the catalyst that shifted the plug-in electric vehicles industry into high gear (pun intended).

I’ve talked about Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) before, and I’ve heard a lot of reader comments on the hybrids on the market right now. So let’s take a look at some of the major car companies’ efforts so far, as well as what lies ahead for consumers and, more importantly, for investors…

GM’s Escalade – An Implausible Hybrid SUV

Starting with the ridiculous, GM has a hybrid version of the Cadillac Escalade that seats eight…

While a miniscule market for large SUVs still exists, these $70,350 base-price behemoths aren’t exactly flying off dealer lots in this economy.
Even if you’re willing to choke down the expensive sticker price, the hybrid version of the Escalade gets a mere 21 MPG on the highway… and that’s only 10% better than its non-hybrid brethren (19 MPG).
Incidentally, that difference amounts to a paltry $1,506 savings in fuel over the life of the vehicle, assuming a vehicle life of 100,000 miles and $3.00/gallon gas.

Compare that to the new five-passenger Honda Insight that gets 50-plus MPG and comes with a $19,000 price tag, making it the most affordable high-mileage hybrid on the market.

Gasoline-Electric Hybrid Cars: Don’t Believe The Hype

While gasoline-electric hybrids are a small improvement over straight internal combustion engine-based vehicles, they’ve been over-hyped by the media and the car manufacturers.

Sadly, many consumers have the perception that gasoline-electric hybrids are the answer to our oil import problem. Getting a feeling of deja vu?

You should be: Corn-based ethanol was going to seriously put a dent in our oil imports, too. Of course, it’s turned into one of the biggest government-sponsored boondoggles of the 21st century.

Like all other large, successful, problem-solving exercises, this one is going to be solved by private industry. The government’s role will (hopefully) be limited to providing tax incentives for the manufacturers, as well as similar incentives for the buying public. The wheels are already in motion on both fronts.

Let me make a bold prediction: In the next 10 years, gasoline-electric hybrids will go the way of their fossil-fuel predecessors. The automobile market is rapidly moving to all-electric vehicles, and it’s going to happen faster than anyone can possibly imagine. Here’s why…

The problem with the two gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles mentioned at the beginning of this article – and all hybrids, for that matter – is that they are just that: hybrids. You still have to visit the gas station, just not quite as often. (Although with the Escalade, you’d be hard-pressed to notice the difference in your wallet.)
There’s only one reason hybrids have been so popular the past few years: The federal government – and public pressure – has forced the car companies to come up with something to give the perception of reducing our oil imports. Voila: the $70,000, two MPG-less Escalade hybrid.

The problem is that the amount of premium paid for these vehicles as a whole negates the miniscule benefit derived by the slightly better mileage. Clearly a better solution is needed.

Plug-In Electric Vehicles: Passing By the Pump… Permanently

Fortunately, the automobile industry is hard at work on one. Coming right behind the hybrids are PHEVs. These all-electric vehicles have no internal combustion engine. Instead, they sport a large bank of batteries that store power and feed it to an electric motor that powers the car.

Now if you’re thinking it will take you forever to accelerate to highway speed, think again:

Electric motors have fantastic torque characteristics that translate into neck-snapping acceleration when they’re integrated into a vehicle’s drive train.
Electric vehicles will ultimately out-accelerate their fossil-fuel predecessors, and leave nothing in the atmosphere in the process.
The driving public won’t have any trouble making the transition from their old gas-guzzling clunkers.

PHEVs have other advantages as well. Braking can actually be accomplished in part by turning the motor into a generator, and dumping the generated power into the battery bank.

This technique – referred to as dynamic braking – puts a load or drag on the motor/generator and slows down the vehicle. Diesel/electric locomotives have used dynamic braking for years to help to slow down freight and passenger trains.

PHEVs – A Potential Game-Changing Technology

While PHEVs are a potential game-changing technology, efforts up until this point have been essentially relegated to the automakers’ development labs and display stands at auto shows.

All that’s about to change:

Nissan (Nasdaq: NSANY) just announced that it will be mass-producing PHEVs for sale in 2012. That’s a few short years away.
Mitsubishi (NYSE: MTU) has unveiled a PHEV, but it comes with a $48,000 price tag.
Of course, the newly restructured GM introduced the Chevy Volt with much fanfare. It remains to be seen, however, if GM can pull it off – and how much the restructuring process will affect its introduction schedule.
And there are other PHEVs that will be announced over the coming months, as no major manufacturer wants to be left out of the game.

The bottom line is that car buyers in the next few years will have a number of PHEVs to choose from, with prices starting in the $20,000 range. This puts them squarely in the high-volume, mass-produced car market.

Your choices as an investor are directly related to your appetite for risk. At the high end of the risk scale, we have the restructured General Motors. At the low end, Nissan, Ford and perhaps Mitsubishi represent less risky ways to play a surge in PHEV sales.

To put it in perspective, however, any investment with PHEVs as a focus should be viewed with a three- to five-year timeframe. It will take at least that long for the sector to flesh out the winners from the losers.

For investors, it represents potential long-term gains that could rival anything the auto sector has produced to date. I’ll be following the space on a regular basis, and will report all of the interesting developments right here.

Good investing,

David Fessler

88 Responses to “Plug-In Electric Vehicles: In Search of the Mass-Produced Hybrid”

Bob Brown Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 10:32 am
My Audi diesel-car exceeds 50 MPG. A normal cost car with no smells, fabulous performance, high torque in low gears, & great acceleration when needed.

Hybrids and electric are entirely un-necessary – just a fashion statement. There is no business case for their existence.

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Daniel Victor Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 10:34 am
People want the money-saving virtues of electric vehicles,but they also want to be able to make long journeys during which they might not get the opportunity to charge up.That means hybrids that can run just on batteries,or just on gasoline.More compact batteries are coming that will allow that.
Once there are enough of those hybrids on the road,faster ways will be found to charge them.The demand for charging points will cause those to become available,and that will pave the way for all – electric vehicles.

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paul a. mccavick Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 10:41 am
Sir, I am curious about the electric automobiles being produced in the future. I have been following EV Innovations inc and Superlattice Power inc. Do you beleive these pioneers will be
able to compete with GM, FORD, AND TOYOTA?

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Gary Benteman Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 10:48 am
I see 2 very large problems with PHEV’s #1 limited range and #2 the fact that our electric grid is already wavering on the knife edge of capacity and any electricty to run PHEV’s has to come from somewhere. Plug in vehicles were somewhat common in the early part of the 20th century and they were known as homing pigeons for their need to often return to base for a charge. If you live out in a rural area or wish to travel through one a PHEV is very likely to leave you stranded because you can’t carry very much energy with you. The thing about hydrocarbons is that they give you the ability to carry a large amount of energy in a fairly small space and this fact coupled with an infrastructure that allows for refuling when necessary will likely relegate the PHEV to urban markets only, and even then they will of necessity have to be heavily subsided by the government or else the government will have to find some way to force reluctant consumers to buy the mostly worthless things.

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Frank Aquilino Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 10:48 am
Quote: Of course, the newly restructured GM introduced the Chevy Volt with much fanfare.

This is the ultimate answer using either CNG or propane as fuel. Unlike gasoline either of these can be stored for years if you run on battery only most of the time. The problem is can it be done for a price people will pay?

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Alice Ladas Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 10:56 am
Please look up the Orion project on the Internet. It is working on related items and I believe youi will find it of interest.

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Gordon C Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 11:01 am
Get a well studied view of the battery issues about PHEV (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) and HEV (hybrid electric vehicles).

http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-petersen/articles/latest

Electric only vehicles won’t make it. Light weight plug-in hybrids will. Can be cost effective, if a ten mile range (before engine starts) is used.

Absolutely need to cut back on imported oil. It is a national security issue. Why do you think W sent your neighbor’s son to Iraq?

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Andrew Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 11:08 am
PHEVs have internal combustion engines. PHEV stands for “Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle.” The Hybrid part of the name refers to the internal combustion engine. For example, the Chevrolet calls it a “range extender” in the Volt. So PHEVs are not “all electric” vehicles. They are a step between the hybrids (e.g., the Prius) and the pure electrics (like the Tesla S model).

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Bogus Dudus Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 11:19 am
So your metric is how often you visit the gas station? Nonense. How often (and for how long) will you have to plug in your PHEV? Or stop to have a new battery fork-lifted into your vehicle (I love that plan). I agree the Escalade was an insane waste of resources, but unless a PHEV can someday achieve AT LEAST a 200-mile range AND MAINTAIN that range for several years, they will be a niche vehicle. Spending even $20,000 on a vehicle that is good for nothing but urban grocery store runs is just as big a waste as the Escalade, which at least carries a payload. Could there be investment opportunities? Maybe, but with man losers for every winner I would guess.

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John Evans Jr. Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 11:22 am
Plug in all electric vehicles? They still take energy. What to do with all the batteries when they reach the end of their usful life (3-5 years)? Will lithem become the new scarse comody? The USA does not have any known reserves. It is one thing to have a few vehicles but quite another when you scale up the numbers to replakce todays fleet of cars and trucks. Will all ellectric vehicles be able to replace todays fleet of medium and heavy duty long haul trucks? These are only a few of the questions that come to mind and will have to be answered befor a conversion to all electric vehicles take over from fossel fuel.

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Clyde Lee Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 11:35 am
I’m one of the unbright individuals who thought hybrids would be a help in the overall game of pollution and saving of oil.

I gave up my beloved ‘95 CADILLAC STS for the first Chevrolet Malibu to be delivered in Houston, Texas.

In town (where I expected the most improvement) I now get about 14 MPG whereas I got 12 with the Caddy. The $7,000 premium (probably $2000 due to my insistance of very early procurement) will never be realized over the likely 10 year 3000 miles per year life of the vehicle.

Thanks for putting a proper perspective on this !

Clyde Lee

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Albert J. Benson Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 11:40 am
Your article is very timely. As it happens, there
is another company which makes battery powered
vehicles, using a new battery, which they call a
Ferous Ion, which has a much shorter charging time, less than an hour for a half charge will
power the vehicle for many more miles than the
Lithium Ion battery, will be much less lespenive.
Do a google search on ‘BYD Auto’ and click on the
URL for Warren Buffett investment.

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Jess Milford Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 11:47 am
I enjoyed reading your article about all electric
vehicles. If they were available for $20,000 or
less they would be in every diveway. Why…because
most people only drive a short distance from home….whether for work or play. They are no longer thinking BIG….just gas free.

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Dave Tonkinson Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
Ok…. All electric battery cars…I like it so far…But, please answer these questions.
1. How long are batteries expected to last before they must be replaced ?
2. How much will the batteries cost to replace?
3. What happens when two battery operated cars collide ?
4 What is the explosion potential of a short circuits ?
5. Just how safe are these cars expected to be ? Mileage isn’t EVERYTHING !

Dave

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ANDY SNELL Reply:
July 5th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Dave Tonkinson,

I can answer the first 2 of your questions.
1)Battery life, Between 3 And 5 years
depending on how it is used.

2) COST between $6,000- to $10,000 depending
on the vehicles design and use.

Note: You will note that no electric car WACKO will ever answer these two questions. I have a friend that bought a lithium battery powered, electric tricycle capable of going 25 mph. The battery,alone,cost $2,800-

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Craig Schwerdt Reply:
July 8th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
I have read most of the info above,,
Everyone is missing the point,,,
I have been working on a electric motor,,
Variablable RPM & constant torque- TRUE,
My vehiclle runs at 120km/p/h,, range 460kms,
Reasons – solar panel on roof, bonnet & trunk,
600 watts produced, Battery supply 36volts,
Electric motor requires 24volts,
Electric motor specs – 1.5KW ,
My motor is simple to make & cost effective.

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
Hey, no magic. Solar panel, MAX about 2hp. What can you do with 2hp? NOTHING useful as far as transportation goes. Tell me, what kind of vehicle are you planning with your motor and what do you expect to do with it?

Craig Schwerdt Reply:
July 25th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
There is no magic,,
Its to do with my motor design & construction,,
I have to have a PCB integeral to the motor,
Enables my 3.5KW motor run at variable RPMs 0 – 12,000rpms / Constant torque produced – 130 nm I currently have it fitted to a Mazda 3 2002 model.
Fred Werner Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
David,

I still don’t see any answers to the the only questions that matter with electric vehicles. 1) What is the range? I am on the road as a salesman. I travel extensively all over California. Just how many miles can I drive before I need to re-charge, and how long will it take, while I’m standing in the sun, waiting? 2) What is the like of this “bank ” of batteries? Batteries are notoriously unreliable in the re-charging stage. We are told they will last 1,000 charges, and they generally last less than half. Must they be totally run-out before recharging? What will they cost to replace? For every question asked, there are 10 more follow-up questions. No, I don’t see batteries as the answer, at least not for 10 or so years of additional development.

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Barrie Best Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
I think hybrids are dynasors (sp?) just like ethanol run vehicles. I feel Honda is the only car manufacture who has really made feasible and
economical progress on getting totally out of
any form of internal combusion engines – namely their FCX Clarity a hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicle with its only emission being water. They are being consumer tested in both Japan and in Torrance CA. Right on the heels of this is a
hydrogen producing unit not only to refuel the car but heat and light the home too.

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Dave Ronyak Reply:
July 5th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
Hydrogen is a proven fuel source for both fuel cells and internal combustion engines, but comes with its own unique problems. These include safety, as pure hydrogen has no smell and burns with no visible flame, and requires very high pressures and cold temperatures during storage to minimize losses due to evaporation. And what solutions exist for the owner of a hydrogen powered vehicle that is parked most of the time and only driven intermittently? If all of the on board fuel evaporates, the vehicle becomes useless and requires either a tow to a fuel station or a portable refueling unit to come to the vehicle. And all the energy expended to create the hydrogen that evaporated is lost — forever, thus offsetting environmental gains otherwise possible. Perhaps someone has invented an effective absorption or adsorption media to mitigate hydrogen losses during longer term storage, but I do not know of any. I Mr. Fessler or anyone partipating in this string of replies does, I ask them to please post their information and ideas.

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Homer Simpson Reply:
July 6th, 2009 at 11:35 am
The lowest wholesale cost for hydrogen is about $100 per gallon equivalent. Made by cooking coal, lots of emissions and not easily stored. Electrolysis of water loses about half the energy put in. Where do you get the idea that you can heat and light your home with this?

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Richard Nagel Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
You missed: The new diesels,preform better than Hybrid. Hybrid with diesel is better. Battery only is not yet practical: Battery charge won’t go far enough at one half battery life. Very poor range between charges in cold weather. Batteries cost too much. ( I understand a Chevrolet Volt battery costs $10,000). Small batteries of this type only last 3 or 4 years. Licenses will have to cost more because the governments won’t be getting any road tax money. (Very hard for governments to fairly access with out putting in a separate electric meter for charging).

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Fred Stork Reply:
July 5th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
Richard i have voiced similar concerns. In fact, the batteries last for a very long time.
And the apologists claim since they don’t need to be replaced, cost is not a big factor.
However, they surely can be damaged or destroyed in accident, so the replacement cost IS a factor, since our insurance rates are based on repair/replacement costs. So we save on fuel (hypothetically) but pay through the nose for insurance.
And resale value of older vehicles will drop to zero, as it’s not cost effective to replace batteries in them. So poor people would be excluded from driving all together.
Amazing how the hypocrites flog all the advantages and conveniently “forget” to deal with the downside of it.

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Don Lowry Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
What you are describing as plug-in hybrids are not “hybrids” at all. You are describing all-electric vehicles. A true plug-in hybrid, like other hybrids, has a (small?) gasoline engine as well as electric motors. (I believe this is true even of Chevrolet’s “Volt.”)

The only difference between a plug-in hybrid and a regular hybrid is that the plug-in variety can also be plugged into an electric outlet, thus recharging the batteries without using the gasoline engine. But that engine is still there to recharge the batteries once the car goes far enough to use up the plug-in charge.

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L Beecher Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Why is it that analysts (and everyone else) ignore the effect that charging huge numbers of vehicle batteries will have on the U.S. electric supply system? The demand on that system is already more than it can sometimes handle, and there are serious concerns about the huge investment required to increase its capacity going forward – just to handle expected normal increase in load. Add a new vast demand to charge vehicle batteries and what do people think the result will be? Do they really believe all the additionally required electricity will be readily available any time soon to charge their vehicle batteries and that its price will remain low? It will not be available if needed soon, and when it is available it will be so only at a much higher (likely huge) price. And that means a significant increase in cost to power residences, businesses, street lighting, traffic lights, and absolutely everything else that requires electric power. Why does no one determine what that demand would be, how it would develop over time, how it would be satisfied, how long it would likely take to be able to satisfy it, what impact satisfying it would have on our society, and how much it would cost to do so?

Another point: everyone seems to think driving an all-electric vehicle eliminates pollution. It does not. It merely transfers production of pollution from vehicle exhausts to electric utilities. And forget production of any significant quantity of electricity by wind and solar for the foreseeable future. The existing U.S. electric system was built and developed over a very long time and will not be replaced in the lifetimes of anyone alive today. Cost to replace existing coal-fired electric generation with wind, solar, and nuclear generation is almost beyond imagination, very possibly more than our nation can afford. So why does no one determine how long that might take, and at what cost?

Two more concerns and questions: media people and politicians like to talk about how many ‘green’ jobs all this change will create. How about the countless jobs that will be lost in existing power generation and transportation fuels enterprises? And what is the cost for the virtually unfathomable disruption all this would cause in our society?

Talk is cheap, easy, and wishful. Accomplishment is expensive, difficult, and realistic. Why have no credible scientific and engineering studies been completed that support the countless claims of benefits being made for electric-powered transportation? It’s a wonderful futuristic panacea, but such a vast, expensive, time-consuming, and disruptive undertaking should never be commenced, let alone forced by U.S. governments at all levels, absent substantial scientific and engineering basis.

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Bob Jannett Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
The problem with PHEV’s is where will they be plugged in. If you own a driveway that will help out quite a bit. If you have to park on the street,where will you plug in? Another problem is the distance traveled before the battery runs out. I can just picture thousands of vehicles pulled off the highways. I would like to see On-Demand hydrogen vehicles. No storage of explosive hydrogen will be on the vehicle at any time.

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Richard Ginnaty Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
What about the electric utilities in this all electric mix? Certainly, their demand will increase. Can you project the increased demand and will that materially matter to their business? Are there other industries that will benefit? Such as those suppling the plug in facilities required or ?? Any comments??

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Joe Curry Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
I take exception to your comment on the Hybrid Cadilac Escalade. You tout that it has a 10% mpg improvement for highway driving. Don`t you think you should of mentioned the 50% city mpg improvement. Non Hybrid city driving is 13-14mpg,and Hybrid city is 21-22mpg. You also mention the Honda Insight at 50 mpg,but you forget to mention that is city mpg. Sounds like apples and oranges to me. Hybrid strong points have always been the city driving,highway drivers should opt for the non hybrid.

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bob bainbridge Reply:
July 7th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Is it possible that that an improved public transportation system would provide a benefit to the community,eliminate the need for electric in the city (except for delivery vans) and allow high efficiency fuel engines for out on the highway. We always avoid public transportation issues because of inconvenience.

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Bob, you are right. It is the convenience factor that drives us to personal transportation. As long as people demand to have personal transportation we will be faced with exhorbitant use of energy (in any form), pollution and the overall high cost. We live too far apart, too far from our food sources and to far from our places of employment. It is fundamental and there is nothing in sight that will change this: Cities are dying and people have fled to the burbs.

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cookiegreen Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
This is an interesting article as I wld very like
to buy a small PHEV. Please keepme posted.
If a manufactorer ever needs to test PHEVs in
mounteneous areas like the Mt Blanc area pls let
me know.

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E L Schmidt Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
The vehicle may not pollute. The generation of the electricity will pollute, unless we smarten up and go to nuclear power generation.

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JIm MacGregor Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Dear David,
Your Plug-in Electric article is very interesting, but what about fuel cell hydrogen power. I understand they have operating prototypes already.

Jim

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Steve Rebain Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
The pollution will be shifted from the auto to the electric power plant, and any significant sales will additionally load an already overloaded transmission network causing a different set of economic and power availability issues. Unintended consequences.

American consumers will find the vehicle range of 40-70 miles before recharge and the recharge time to refill the battery pack commercially unacceptable. Maybe these auto will be commercially viable in Europe and Asia.

Hundreds of pounds of spent rechargable batteries per auto will create a disposal/recovery issue after around 5-7 yesrs of use — another unintended consequence.

Battery breakthrough claims need careful and cynical consideration. Batteries are not new and tremendous amounts of improvement work have been expended on batteries for nearly 100 years. Progress has been incremental after new chemistry formulations come to the market. Not impossible, but, not highly likely without a new chemical formulation.

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Homer Simpson Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 3:53 pm
What type of drugs will we need to make the pev work? The neck snapping acceleration will come from increased energy consumption. We still do not have a good battery. Batteries lose about 40% of the energy they store, are expensive and toxic and begin to deteriorate from the day they are made. L-i cells have a four year maximum life. How about the thrilling performance from a car with two year old batteries? What about the heater/defroster, will it be electric? You might have hard time getting out of the driveway in the winter with the heater on and the greatly reduced output from cold batteries.

Where will the energy come from? More coal burning. So much for the zero emissions. A car is not a cell phone and will take major power to charge up. An appliance wall socket is good for one horsepower of output. A car needs an average of 40hp to drive. You might need to upgrade your wiring. Think light industrial. Energy consumption and cost will be two to four times more than for gasoline cars when you include battery replacement. The battery pack is consumable item with limited life in such severe service. Hill climbing is death to battery vehicles as it really overtaxes the chemical capacity of the batteries. Where I live mobility scooters cannot be used in the hilly parts of town. The best ones can only crawl up the hills with new batteries. Adding more batteries makes the vehicle heavier so it doesn’t help much.

There are good reasons why there are no electric cars even though they have been tried for a hundred years now. The car makers can build them for sure but who can use them.

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Rumple Stiltskin Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 5:41 pm
Yeah, and where do we plug in when away from home??????????

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Wayne Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
I believe the car makers will come up with ideal electrics, but the one concern I have always had is – How far can you go on a charge? It willtake a better battery system. I have got that yet ?

No.

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ROCKY Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
This still dosent address the real question.Where is the power going to come from? A high percentage of electricity generated in North America comes from coal generated power stations.That isnt exactly an enviro friendly power source.Unless the price of wind generation and solar power drop considerably PHEVs might be a hard sell in North America.Also what about people who live and work in extremely remote areas? We dont have a power outlet in a fir tree in the middle of no where.Also what about fuel up time.Its fine if you can plug your vechile in and leave it for 4-5 hrs or more but compare to a 5 minute stop at a service station it will be another hard sell area.They might have there place but i can’t see them taking over the whole market.

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Myron Martin Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
I have grave doubts about electrics taking over the market! The batteries are too bulky and expensive and the range is too limited. Commuters in big cities with excellent transit systems will use that in lieu of an expensive car with limited range, which also rules out commuting from so called bedroom communities unless their work place provides plug-ins to recharge during the work day.

If we are trying to REDUCE gas and diesel usage and protect the environment then WHY are we still building cars capable of travelling 200+ K per hour? It does not take a great deal of power to maintain a reasonable speed of say a max.70 MPH!

We have hardly exhausted existing technologies that could bring us closer to stated objectives! For example, have 2 speed axles, a technology used in trucks been considered to match power to cruising speeds of 75MPH Max. and how many vehicles currently have 6 speed transmissions to reach the same objectives, but DESIGNED not to exceed 75 MPH!

What amazes me is the NOWHERE have I seen any suggestions to use HYDRAULIC motors instead of electric, which could eliminate the need for a transmission as well as expensive batteries and would require a relatively SMALL engine, say a high efficiency diesel to drive the hydraulic pump.

One could be tempted to conclude that their is COLLUSION to keep operating costs high just as people with progressive ideas to obtain more miles per Gal. were BOUGHT OFF by the car and petroleum industries in the past. PROFITS must be maintained, the consumer and the environment are secondary.

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Joseph Kiraly Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
agree with you. A full size gasoline engine + a full size electric motor in a vehicle does not make much sense as the price and savings you quoted prove it.My only reservation on the purely plug-in version is that it needs electricity for heating.I wonder if a really small engine used for partial charging and for heating, in addition to the plug charging would make sense.I realize that such an idea was probably already researched and discarded, but I did not come accross such report.

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Jack Faulk Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
I agree with you comments on the electric PHEV’s, but I think you have missed another technology that has not been given much publicity in the major media
or news, and that is Hydrogen on Demand Technology.
Thousands of cars have this on their engines in America. They are getting from 25% to 50% more miles/gallon on average, the engines last twice as long, because no carbon develops, their is a much cleaner exhaust. Contact Dutchman Enterprizes

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Homer Simpson Reply:
July 6th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
A total hoax.

A 60A alternator uses about 1hp to produce about .72kw of electricity. Nearly half is lost in electrolysis yielding less than .5hp of hydrogen fuel potential. This is then burned in the engine at 30-35% efficiency. The net yield is about 15% of the energy used to run the system.

The only good thing is that the system is so small that the result is hard to detect.

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Homer,it is useless. The fundamentals of energy, thermodynamics are lost on laymen. I thought this electrolysis myth had been broken long ago, but here it is again. Any energy conversion technique (which electrolysis is) doesn’t give you more energy, it gives you LESS, because nothing is 100% efficient. Even if it was, the H2 that you get will result in energy that went all the way around the block: from the gas tank, through the engine, through the alternator, into the H2 generator. All losses. Energy can neither be created nor destroyed. These gizmos generate so little H2, as you say: the result is hard to detect…on top of just adding to the losses of a system that is already only about 30% efficient.

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James Pick. Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
You have certainly missed something as PHEV’s have both an ICE and an electric motor. The main difference between today’s common hybrids and the PHEV’s planned by numerous manufacturers is that the PHEV can travel a limited number of miles in an all electric mode. Batteries which can be charged from the power grid provide that power. If that distance meets one’s daily driving needs there will be no need to use liquid fuel, but it will be available in a regular tank for longer trips. A vehicle that operates on battery power only is a BEV as the Tesla, Aptera, Fiskar,etc. and I think Nissan plans to produce a BEV rather than a PHEV. Your readers should be provided with better information and a correction.

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Jack Faulk Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Dennis Lee is the CE0 of this company. He sent me and email last fall, telling about this Hydrogen on Demand Technology. This hydrogen is really HH0 or Brown gas, some times called Rhodes gas. Mr Lee said
they can get very high miles per gallons, with a new catalytic converter attached to Hydrogen on demand system. They have found that large percentages of gasolines energy is not used in the combustion process and much is wasted and just goes into the atmosphere. He has contacted Ford Motor Company, and they tested their technology on
several ford cars, and were very excited about it.

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Fritz Laistner Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
THERE IS ONE BIG PROBLEM WITH THE ALL ELECTRIC VEHICLES. HOW ARE YOU GOING TO HEAT THESE IN THE WINTER? YOU HAVE TO DEFROST THE WINDSHIELD AND REAR WINDOW. ALSO YOU WILL USE THE HEAD LIGHTS MORE IN THE WINTER. THE BATTERY WOULD BE DEAD IN NO TIME.

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Ken Van Cott Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
Zenn Motors of Toronto , Canada….A Builder of
All Electric Cars hasthe REAL inside to the
Battery Diven Small car with itsJ/V with the
Private Company EEstor of Austin, Texas….

Lockheed Martin is the only other Public owned
Company to have a relationship with EEstor for
its battery capacitors for Defense products.

Check them out & see why I say this….

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Homer Simpson Reply:
July 6th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
EEstor has not demonstrated a working prototype and probably never will. The Zenn is pretty well a glorified golf cart.
The voltage of a capacitor is directly proportional to charge. Half charge, half voltage. Almost no electric devices can function on such a power source. Molly Energy had the same problem with their battery 20 years ago. Even if the patent can be made to work it will probably be useless. Good stock promoters though.

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Even if the supercapacitor were made that could hold enough energy to make this thing drivable, YOU STILL HAVE THE CHARGING PROBLEM: Many hours to go few miles. Fundamental limitation. Brick wall. Special charging circuits, 240 volts at 70 amps STILL take hours to get enough to go 100 miles. All are “glorified golf carts”.

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Sparty Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 9:07 pm
I wonder what the “choke” points are for all electric vehicles?

So far we have seen articles on the Rare Earths and Lithium that argue that some countries are building a “monopoly” in them in terms of gobbling up deposits.

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David Hay Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
While I agree with the thrust of your article on the whole, you have been very selective with your facts and examples. First the hybrid Escalade is the worst example of hybrid technology as you well pointed out. The poor gas mileage is the reason the Honda Accord hybrid suffered poor sales before being scrapped. Secondly, the Transport Canada consumer guide reports that the Toyota Prius will pay for itself in gas after 3 years of normal use; the Camry hybrid in 2 years (debatable). This is a far cry from your prime example of the Escalade. Thirdly, the hybrids are exactly as you infered: a transition vehicle between gas and all-electric. Fourthly, what will happen when people realize that plug-in cars are not that clean? Where do you suppose that electricity comes from? It comes from nuclear reactors, coal-fired furnaces, and hydro-electric generators that flood large amounts of land.

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Rich K. Says:
June 27th, 2009 at 9:44 pm
I think you are dreaming re PHEV’s. The infrastructure does not exist to provide for recharging these batteries on-demand. There is also the issue of disposal of these batteries (and their toxic elements) following their demise. In addition, they do require electricity to run, which in the U.S. means coal or natural gas. In all likelihood, PHEV’s will be another “boondoggle”.

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David LL. Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 1:52 am
Unless nuclear, wind, solar or water driven
energy sources are all that are used, electric
cars will still have a carbon foot print and no
one is talking about the quantitative difference
between the different power sources for cars.

The other thing everyone is neglecting is that
without a garage how to do you charge your
batteries. This in addition to non-urban
dwellers may not be able to make a round trip
on 1 charge. Think the middle of Kansas or
Omaha for example.

How may electrics can be fully charged in 10 or
15 minutes. The Tesla comes closest in performance and range but it costs over 100 K.

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Shivramkrishnan Iyer Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 4:31 am
Yes. Indeed it will be a big leap towards Independence on Petro/diesel fuels. This will definitly bring piece in the globe as most of the
TERRORISM going on is due to abundant petro-dollars in the hands of a Perticular group people (islam) who want to probogate their religion every where in the globe which reach the wrong hands,fuels terrorism,war,and other related
DESTRUCTION OF MAN KIND EVERY WHERE IN TODAY S
WORLD.

THIS NEW INVENTION WILL DENY THESE ACTIVITIES AND
AGAIN FROM CADDILACS TO CAMEL BACK WILL BRING PEACE EVERYWHERE.

AND ALSO NO CO2 AIR-POLLUTION,HEALTHER LIVING BEINGS IN OUR GLOBE.

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Derek Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 7:00 am
PHEV’s are not “all electric vehicles” as the article states. The “H” stands for hybrid. I agree that electric vehicles have a high likelihood of being transforming in the transportation industry. The PHEV has its place in that it will help in the deployment of the required infrastructure as well as the attendant
consumer behavior change. I am looking forward to you updates…please include infrastructure and battery manufacturers in your reporting.

Thanks

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brad Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 9:13 am
Nice thoughts but the new global climate bill is going to cause electricity rates explode. Also note that team Obama is looking to get rid of coal fired power plants. What about the undersized electrical grid, and power outages? How do you charge batteries when the power is out for 6 weeks after a storm like Katrina?
Where then will the cheap electricity come from to power all these cars.

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Chuck Finch Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 10:10 am
Mr. Fessler:

I would agree with eveything your are saying in addition to other things that are happening in other industries as well. Electic vehicles will be the future in transportations with the addition of hydrogen too. If you have time you should take a look at what the agricultural industries will do in just a short time with the nh2 New Holland tractor. It will just be a matter of time until we has the technology to use hydrogen in our vehicles, tucks, cars and machinery. If you look at other small car companies they are now using electric, solar to accomplish this as well.

The big three have and still are resistant to any change concerning the present technology ( internal combustion engines) and that is why they are in trouble. I work for Chrysler and have seen it first hand for years. I could tell you a story you would not believe, but is true. There is to this day an engine that will get 300 mpg and is totally green, but my company would not listen to me or even take a look at it.

Blessings,

Chuck Finch

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Steve Wolff Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 10:10 am
I’m sorry David – I disagree with you regarding whether Government can help kick-start projects. My last company, InVision Technologies (now owned by GE), used a combination of government grants and private funding to design and build hold baggage screening systems known as CTX 5000 now used worldwide to prevent against another Pan Am 103. Without the government funding, no private financial source would touch us and government grants provided the long range planning and financing necessary rather than the short-term focus expected by VCs and angels.

The best model I’ve seen for large, far-reaching projects is:

1. Initial combination of government and private funding (govt funding on its own won’t work)
2. Once the development reaches maturity, then the private sector takes over, competition comes in, the market diversifies and prices drop.

Without that initial kick, however, the process never gets started. I believe it will be the same with advanced battery technology.

Sincerely

Steve Wolff

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dave Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 10:21 am
PHEVs have a couple of problems that you did not mention. For one, they need either a special plugin or a long charging time. A car needs about 10 kilowatts to run. If you plug in to a normal circuit the most that you can get out is 1800 watts, meaning that you would need six hours of charging time for one hour of driving time if your battery charger was 100% efficient. For a shorter charging time you would need something like 208 volts with at least 30 or 40 amps. This means a special charging circuit. The other big problem is that the electricity used has to be produced somewhere. This will typically be done at a coal or natural gas fired plant, which will burn fuel to produce electric power to send on overhead lines, which will have to be upgraded if electric vehicles become common. The pollution is simply moved from the vehicle to the generating station.

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
Even with the special plug and charging circuit: 240 volts at 70 amps, it STILL takes 4 hours or more to get a 100 mile charge. PHEVs ONLY GOOD FOR COMMUTING. NEVER go out of range of home. Fundamental limitation.

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William Marsh Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 11:05 am
I drove a Telsa supercar thats PHEV.Extremely Fast when needed. quiet as a pin dropping.
A good auto to drive daily and plug in when done. Besides having a few motorcars in the stable.

Bearings, bushings things that wear out in time. with upkeep auto no problem when gas shoots up again. A car with roller coaster technology and thrills.

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Tim Kyle Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Plug in electric vehicles are pretty pointless if the electricity required to charge them is coming from a fossil fuelled power station with dubious
overall conversion efficiency. May be alright with genuinely renewable electricity generation or nuclear power

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Dennis McCarthy Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Interesting – I thought PHEV stands for Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicle. The author claims that PHEVs don’t contain an internal combustion engine. If not, what’s the “other” part of the hybrid?

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Grumpy Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Somebody’s been drinking the Kool Aid again. Pure electric, as in “plug in electric” are a fad, pure and simple. Do some real research,explore fuel cell technology, then research batteries, then come back and write something useful, not pie in the sky.

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Grumpy, you are right. However, fuel cells have a LONG way to go: efficiency, demand output. However, with something like the Volt, with a 200 hp constant speed diesel keeping the batteries topped off and providing long distance power, it does make some $en$e.

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V Carulei Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 8:42 pm
And where do you stop to refill when the Electric Vehicle runs out of electricity enroute to Houston from San Francisco.

Why Plug in HYBRID Electric Vehicle? If the vehicle is 100% electric, it aint no hybrid.

What’s wrong with a 50cc gas motor on board to charge the battery all the way from San Francisco to Houston?

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Or, what has been proven over and over: Super high efficiency DIESEL. Easily get 50 mpg, great horsepower, acceleration, reduced “pollution”. Naw, we need something edgy, like electrics. Fogeddaboudit.

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Denis Webb Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
It should be noted that great strides have taken place in battery technology. GM are operating with nearly four year old chemistry for the volt, under performing, manufactured in France and water cooled.

Ener1 appears to have the right technology today, non-explosive, larger format, no need for water cooling, lozenge shape, faster charge and 90% capacity after ten years of daily use!
They also have an American plant capable of large volume production. I expect my next car to be an all electric vehicle from a more adventurous company.
Thanks, Denis Webb

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Eric Brindle Says:
June 28th, 2009 at 11:44 pm
Nice puff piece on electric cars. It’s night in the dead of winter. Since there is no gasoline engine throwing off heat, does this electric car use resistence heat to keep me warm?? My head lights are on at the same time as the heat is required. Think I’ll be able to go more then 10 miles that way?? How long will it take to recharge the batteries??Will the batteries weigh less then a tank of gas or occupy the same space??

The Chevy Volt gets UP TO 40 miles to a charge before going to a gas engine. Sure, most of the time 40 miles is enough. But am I supposed to have 2 cars?? One electric for around town, and one gas one to go long distance?? Good Luck with that. Tell me the name of the guy with the Break Through design in the battery which jumps the holding capacity and shrinks the size and weight and I might buy shares.

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
It’s in the heat of summer. You bought your plugin commuter car and jump in to drive home. Hot, real hot. Dare not use the AC even if this thing has one. Sweat, baby, sweat.

Dare not go anywhere out of range of your home special purpose charge station. “Refueling” on the road will be so painful (even when stations are equipped) that NO ONE will operate a plug in out of the range of their home. Heaven forbid if you violate this rule. Can’t walk to a gas station to get a gallon. Gotta go plug in….for hours and hours.

Fogeddaboudit.

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John graham Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 3:23 am
Of course, everyone will need two – one in use and one charging. So the price tag is not $20,000 but $40,000.

This looks like a government-inspired blind alley. I suspect the real answer is hydrogen powered cars, like in the California trials.

Batteries are so limiting – what lady want to be caught out on the freeway at night with a flat battery?

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pete Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
wow, more amateur hour material from another so-called green expert. you’re missing the real opportunity entirely. hint: it’s not in the car manufacturers. Also, you say the Honda Insight is a 50-mpg car for 19k. Actually, it’s a 41 mpg car for closer to 20k. The 2010 Prius gets 50 mpg.

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Jack Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
Some of the first automobiles were electric, but for good reasons they have never gone mainstream:

-Weight and lifetime of the batteries make it a costly system

-Efficiency is marginal. The power at the source suffers losses in converting to battery voltage, battery acceptance takes another hit, self discharge another, and then the losses in operating at various loads and speeds of the electric motors.

-The electric power grid would have to be expanded on a vast scale to accommodate general automobile use, which will take many years of wrangling over environmental impact, politics, fuel sources.

A possible answer to the battery problem is the recent lithium/air battery, but it will be a while before it proves out. Meanwhile, the old dream of generating dc power with solar panels on your roof may finally be approaching economic feasibility. One snag still remains; what to do on a cross country trip, take a nap while a charging station tops you off?

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
It’s the charging time that will keep this technology strictly as a commmuter car. TAKES TOO LONG. Must never use it out of range of home base.

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Len Viens Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
Dave,

With all the discussion on Hybrid Vehicles, what happened to the fuel cell???

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Wayne Says:
June 29th, 2009 at 9:59 pm
Why do you guys keep talking about electric cars, how do you get them charged??? By pugging them in and using power, how is power generated?? by coal and natural gas….Why cant you see what is going on here!! Also if even 1/8 of Americans bought electric vehicles the power grid couldnt handle it. Wake up and smell the coffee, what we need to do is change our lifestyles and not use as much energy.

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J. Keen Holland Says:
July 1st, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Several have mentioned electric utility costs for charging and a few the effect which the Obama administration’s war on coal will have in raising electric power costs. Here in PA, the buzz is starting on the planned hike in electricity prices – 30% or so depending on your provider – coming in another year or two. Metropolitan Edison is offering a pre-payment program at 7.5% interest. And, this was before the carbon tax legislation and other anti-generation policies of the administration could be factored in. I have read similar reports of steep rises coming in power costs in CA. These developments will not favor plug-in electric vehicles. I’m telling farmers I know to grow sunflowers and cold-press oil for diesel fuel; what’s left over is a nutritious feed for livestock.

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E. Howerter Says:
July 5th, 2009 at 10:45 am
I just read through all of the comments. The one where I had to pause for a moment was the one that asked the question, “How do you heat these vehicles in the winter?” Never heard this comment brought up before. I live in northeastern part of the US. It can get quite cold for a long time and stay that way. It get much colder in other parts of the country. What is the plan for heating all electric vehicles when it is 0 degrees outside?

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Agree. How about cooling in summer? Better get used to being hot.

The biggest problem is the range. Not the range on a charge, but the absolute range you want to drive. Charging “on the road” will be so painful that NO ONE will ever use these curiosities for anything but commuting. Delivering electrical energy equivalent to a gallon of gas is apalling: Even with a special high performance charging circuit at home, it takes many hours to get just a few miles.

Special purpose commuter car. Fogeddaboudit.

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the boobyprize Says:
July 7th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
I see to many negative thoughts in this list. Think of the possibilities, not what will bring the project to a halt. The problems have to be solved but, I suspect they will be accomplished one-by-one….. go engineers !

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bow down Reply:
July 14th, 2009 at 4:54 am
I think electric cars wont be in full use until the oil is completely dry.I also think there will be a differant type of power in 20 years NOT ELECTRIC as there is to many down sides.

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 17th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
What magic energy? Nothing that has even been imagined is so portable, convenient and volume efficient as gas, diesel, propane, LNG, all from oil. “Oil completely dry” NEVER in many many generations. There is so much of the stuff that it will be hundreds of years before it is “completely dry”. There is no magic. Only when people stop using personal transportation, PERIOD, will there be a solution. As long as people want to go somewhere at the drop of a hat, in their own vehicle in total control, the “energy problem” will be with us. We will have to learn to live like bees, in a hive, with food and work very close by. Unfortunately, unlike bees, we can’t fly…how about that for a solution?

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Baja Pete Says:
July 13th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
I checked out Ener1 10Q for quarter ended 3/31/09. The report is 98 pages long suggesting that Ener1 management is more interested in generating a lot of confusing paperwork, cross ownership agreements, stock options, warrants, etc. than it is in actually manufacturing and selling batteries. Stay away from this turkey.

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larry brunetti Says:
July 17th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
The fundamental “choke” point is the charging time. Can’t get there from here. Not enough demand capacity to charge up for any kind of trip. Long charge times are the rule. Will never be solved. Instant demand for charge would have to be supplied by extremely high voltages (to reduce the amperage) and/or extremely high amperage. Even applying the full power capacity of a high power home (500 amp service) it STILL takes hours. Can’t beat fossil fuels: gas, diesel, propane, LNG…I KNOW! Burn FOOD!

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Air Head Says:
July 21st, 2009 at 11:06 am
You Americans are barking up the wrong tree!

Take a look at this little Australian Company…

http://www.engineair.com.au

Compressed air runs this motor!

No need for two types of engines in the one car.

Light weight.

Quiet operation…and the engine weighs less than a conventional exhaust pipe and muffler!

Virtually maintenance free, with only a few moving parts.

It can be made of ceramics or even plastics because the operating temperatures are low.

Extending the range by heating the air after it leaves the high pressure tank, may see a radiator developed to work in reverse.

The engine will be astonishingly cheap to mass produce.

Monash University in Melbourne won a concept car design based around this engine.

And in a crash there is nothing volatile to burn!

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larry brunetti Reply:
July 23rd, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Where do you get the compressed air? This is another example of “energy conversion” that achieves little. BTW, study the concept car closely and you will find that the amount of energy that can be stored onboard a vehicle (even using an impossible pressure of 10,000psi)will only take you a few miles. The volume efficiency of compressed air is so low that it doesn’t make any sense at all. It is a wonder that a university actually engaged in this “study” that is so limiting and so useless that it it an indictment of the university’s intelligence.

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Air Head Reply:
September 6th, 2009 at 9:41 am
Some Points taken…This is not for long distance work, yet.

But: 1. The compressed air can be made anywhere…..no drilling, refining or transport costs. The electricity to run the compressor can be made by renewable energy. No pollution necessary.

2. The application of this engine may first come with say a fleet of golf carts on resorts.

3. The three stage aircompressor will cost far more than the Engineair engine….so multiple users around a hub would be needed.

4. For home use your aircompressor could provide air for Engineair engines on a whipper snipper, lawn mower, golf cart, small car or motor scooter, 15 HP boat and all the air you need for your SCUBA diving!

5. The range of an airpowered car may be extended by converting its momentum back to compressed air, during braking. This may add 10-20% in stop start city traffic.

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