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Edson Gould: The “Gould-en” Rule to Stock Market Investing
by Robert Williams, Advisory Panelist, The Oxford Club
Friday, February 20, 2009: Issue #940
To appreciate why we favor companies with consistently good earnings and discourage efforts to time the market, you have to consider the often overlooked studies of Edson Gould.
Gould is regarded as one of the best market technicians of all time, albeit his enviable track record was logged during the 1960s and 1970s, before the Dow had even cracked the 1,000 level.
All the same, he’s relevant because he was the first to suggest that economic fundamentals and monetary conditions alone couldn’t explain (or predict) stock market behavior.
He began his exhaustive studies as an analyst for Moody’s in the 1920s, intent on building a model that could accurately predict the movement of stocks.
Edson Gould had great difficulty finding a relevant pattern to the stock markets. In his frustration, he stumbled upon a principle that guides our understanding of the psychology of the markets even today. And for investors, following the “Gould-en rule,” regardless of market conditions – is profitable.
Edson Gould – Finding Stock Market Answers
Edson Gould carried indexes back as far as 100 years, incorporating everything from Newton’s laws of motion to quantum physics, and found that regardless of how much you knew about the underlying fundamentals, you still didn’t get very accurate stock market answers.
“I recognized that economic and monetary forecasts and trends were vital in projecting stock prices three and four years out, but came to the realization that they could have little value when trying to forecast stock prices over a period of weeks, several months, or even as many as two years,” said Gould.
He knew another key variable was at play – one that would fill in the blank, so to speak, and explain the market’s random behavior (over a shorter time period).
Everything changed when Edson Gould read the book “The Crowd,” by French social scientist Gustave Le Bon, which was a study of the popular mind based largely upon the experience of crowds in the French Revolution.
Edson Gould’s Stock Market – Mass Crowd Psychology
Upon reading and re-reading the book, Edson Gould “came to the initial realization, since reinforced, that the action of the stock market is nothing more nor less than a manifestation of mass crowd psychology in action.”
And given that crowd psychology is not something that can be accurately predicted, trying to surmise the stock market’s next directional move is folly.
It’s simple really.
Easy money and an economy that fosters prosperity make the likelihood of an extended bull market very good. Strained banking resources and guarded spending limit the possibility of such a price advance.
Everything the market does – the day-to-day volatility of prices – can be attributed to the mood swings of the crowd.
Think of the stock market as an emotional auction of sorts:
- The market auctions up until there are no more buyers.
- Then it reverses and moves down until there are no more sellers.
All market activity occurs within this framework. Through this lens, it’s easier to understand how psychology directly affects the manner in which the auction commences.
By focusing on proven investment strategies, we can remove ourselves from some of the influences of the crowd.
The “Gould Standard” – Companies With Strong Earnings
Consider sound companies with consistently strong earnings as the “Gould standard.” And the poorly managed companies, which regularly miss Wall Street expectations, as hunks of lead.
Focusing your holdings on these proven winners – companies where investor psychology will always tip back in your favor – is the one of the best ways to remove uncertainty and emotion from your portfolio.
How so?
As Alexander Green says in his book “The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio,” “Over the long term, there is one thing about equities that you can safely take to the bank: Share prices follow earnings.
“Look back through history and try to find even a single company that increased its earnings quarter after quarter, year after year, and the stock didn’t tag along. Conversely, try to uncover one whose earnings declined year after year and the stock continued to move up. It just doesn’t happen.”
Gould often referred to the stock market as a crowd void of reason, which simply reacts animalistically and emotionally. Just know, that following the crowd is no way to build long-lasting wealth. And in the short term, may lead you over a cliff.
Your “Gould-en rule,” should be to invest and profit in ways that keep you firmly grounded on a solid foundation. It’s what we aim to do at The Oxford Club and Investment U.
Good investing,
Robert Williams
Editor’s Note: Companies that consistently beat earnings expectations, have strong management and are based in niche markets – all fit the profile of a White Cap. As one of the strategists for the White Cap Index, Robert Williams has helped Louis Basenese guide the index to a 135% return over the past year. To find out more, and to get the next few companies to be added, find out more about The White Cap Report.
Today’s Investment U Crib Sheet
Robert Williams is the Associate Investment Strategist at The White Cap Report. Their index identifies a consistent stream of double- and triple-digit gainers by focusing on companies that typically are:
- A pioneer on the verge of creating new trends… Companies can create products to compete in existing markets… Or they can create products that are so revolutionary and timely that they launch their own markets and trends. These are the types of companies the White Cap strategy identifies first.
- Magnets for fresh capital from venture capitalists and private equity… Once a company has the product, it needs cash to fuel the coming growth explosion… Our contacts tell us where the venture capital is flowing at any given moment. This sometimes includes companies that aren’t even public yet. But it doesn’t matter. We track them anyway, because eventually they will IPO… and we want you to be one of the first to capitalize on the opportunity.
- Still within three years of their initial public offering (or major index listing)… Smaller companies have more room to grow. Plus, the big Wall Street funds usually are barred from investing until a company’s market cap exceeds $1 billion. By focusing on such “young” companies you can capture the first wave of profits… and then the second and third waves as the institutional money floods in.
To find out more about the White Caps, and to get the newest companies to make the Index – before they are released to the investment public – go to The White Cap Report.
- Biotech Stocks: The Market’s Best Bargain Right Now…
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February 22nd, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Hello: I am 56 and have been buying stocks since I was 11 or 12. I read the Gone Fishing book the week it came out. I am still trying to find fault with Green’s system but can’t find any. I have been investing all new money into his system ever since.
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