 | The Investment U e-Letter: Issue #776
Monday, March 17, 2008 4 Investing Lessons: How To Profit During a Financial Crisis
by Dr. Mark Skousen, Advisory Panelist, Investment U Falling real estate prices, an unrelenting decline in the U.S. dollar, gasoline prices approaching $4 a gallon, gold hitting $1,000 an ounce, a grinding bear market on Wall Street… How does one survive and prosper during a financial crisis that just won't go away? The latest crisis occurred this weekend, when the Federal Reserve engineered a bailout of Bear Stearns, a major U.S. bank that was selling for $70 a share just a week ago, and today is selling for under $4. The Fed also cut a quarter point off the Discount Rate, and opened up the Discount Window to brokerage firms for the first time since the Great Depression. It is expected to cut the Fed Funds Target Rate substantially at its meeting tomorrow. Not surprisingly, the dollar fell and gold rallied. Having lived through many troubled events in my 35 years on Wall Street, let me pass along a few important investing lessons… Investing Lesson #1: You Can't Trust Government or Big Business You can't trust government officials to warn you of impending disaster, whether it be the next war, depression, or monetary crisis. The great French economist Bertrand de Jouvenel once observed that those in power have "the least foresight" as to where we are headed. Government officials are notorious for withholding the reality of the crisis, whether it be the rate of inflation, the cost of war, or an impending bank failure. Big business isn't much better. Bear Stearns released a statement saying everything was fine two hours before JP Morgan stepped in to shore up the investment bank. The best source of information is from private economists and independent analysts - the kind you get at Investment U. We've been warning of trouble for several years now, following the Fed's reckless "easy money" policies. Investing Lesson #2: Don't Panic, Especially on Monday Monday is a notoriously volatile day when investors panic and dump stocks at drastic prices, only to regret it later in the week. If you have a well-diversified portfolio, as we have encouraged, you will survive and prosper. I have a book on my shelf entitled "Never Sell on Monday!" It's good advice. With the market already in a slump, stocks could rally at any time. Investing Lesson #3: Don't Fight the Fed Since the Great Depression, history is on the side of the Fed in stabilizing the economy during a monetary crisis, whether it be the 1987 stock market crash, the 1997 Asian currency crisis, or the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Fed learned a hard lesson in December 1930, when it failed to bail out the official-sounding Bank of the United States. By failing to act, the Fed precipitated the Great Depression. Ever since then, the Fed has moved quickly to step in and act as the true lender of last resort. The 2007-08 real estate credit crunch may take longer to work out, but I'm betting that the Fed will once again stabilize the economy and the financial markets. However, there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself. And given that the Fed is a source of great instability (easy money - tight money cycle), it pays to hedge your bets. And that brings me to the final lesson. Investing Lesson #4: Invest in Gold Most importantly, stay invested in "non-correlated" investments, especially gold, oil and commodities. You should always invest in non-traditional "alternative" investments as a hedge. The Fed is making some serious mistakes, especially cutting interest rates too far below the "natural rate" of interest, and thus further weakening the dollar and encouraging oil and gold prices to rise even more. That's why I've been emphasizing a 15% position in natural resources recently - stocks and funds that invest in mining and energy companies, and the outright buying of gold and silver coins. (See today's crib sheet below to find out how to buy gold and silver directly.) Remember the wise words of the venerable Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters: "In a bear market, the winner is he who loses the least!" Good trading, Mark Today's Investment U Crib Sheet - To learn more about buying gold and silver, feel free to contact our favorite coin dealers: Van Simmons at David Hall's Rare Coins - 800.759.7575; and Camino Coin, 800.348.8001.
- Mark also highly recommends attending the anti-establishment "World Economic Summit" being held at this year's FreedomFest, from July 10 to 12, in Las Vegas. Alex Green and a host of other Oxford Club experts will be presenting. And Mark is happy to announce that he just landed Steve Forbes, too, who will be the keynote speaker. He also just signed up Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, who predicted the subprime mess at last year's FreedomFest. They will be joined by other great financial experts, including Jeremy Siegel (Wharton School) and Steve Moore (The Wall Street Journal). In all there will be 88 speakers and 100 exhibitors. It's filling up fast, so call Tami Holland at 866.266.5101, or visit the website. The 'early bird' discount has been extended to you, as an Investment U reader: Save $100 per person or $200 per couple by signing up before April 15.
- How do you know it's time to sell your stocks? To learn the simple technique for mastering the true art of investing: Knowing precisely when to take profits… or cut your losses early, check out Investment U Issue #663, When To Sell Stock: Here's The Best Tool For Knowing When To Unload Your Investment.
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