The Investment U e-Letter: Issue #663
Tuesday, April 17, 2007 When To Sell Stock: Here's The Best Tool For Knowing When To Unload Your Investment
by Alexander Green, Chairman, Investment U
Anyone can buy a stock. The art of investing is knowing when to sell stock.
There are a number of theories about when to cash in your chips. But most of them are misguided. And some are completely wrongheaded. For example, any analyst who urges you to sell a stock because the market is about to tank is immediately discredited, in my view. While there are certainly many bear markets and bull markets ahead of us, no one - and I mean that literally - has ever demonstrated any proficiency at warning investors in advance. Sure, anyone can call a market turn occasionally. But no one does it with any consistency. (Ask Joe Granville, Bob Prechter, Elaine Garzarelli or Abbey Joseph Cohen.) Fear of a market downturn is a very poor excuse for selling a great company. Other analysts believe in price targets. It's not uncommon for a Wall Street type to suggest that you buy a stock at $26, with a price target of $35. The idea, of course, is that the company is undervalued at $26 and will be "fully valued" at $35. When it gets there, the argument goes, you should sell it. Wrong again. The #1 Way to Know When To Sell Stock… and Protect Your Principal If there is truth to any of the great maxims of Wall Street it's this one: cut your losses and let your profits run. Selling a rising stock, by definition, is not letting your profits run. There is, however, one sell discipline that forces you to do just that. It's called a trailing stop. And if you're not using one to protect your stock positions, you should be. A trailing stop is simply a stop-loss order set a certain percentage below the market - and then adjusted as the price rises. Let's use a 25% trailing stop as an example. After buying a stock at $20, you would immediately place a sell stop at $15, 25% below your purchase price. Under no circumstances should you lower your stop. It's there to protect your principal. However, you should adjust it upward as the stock begins to rise. When the stock hits $30, for instance, your 25% sell stop would be at $22.50, guaranteeing you a double-digit gain. When the stock hits $40, your sell stop would be at $30. And so on. This maximizes your gains - and ensures that your profits never slip through your fingers. Traders, who are short-term oriented, will always want to run their sell stops closer than long-term investors. But even a short-term trader shouldn't run his stops too close to the market. Why? Because no stock moves up in a straight line. And you don't want to get knocked out of a winning stock while its just going through its normal fluctuations. There is plenty of research to back up the idea of running trailing stops, incidentally. The Best Money Managers Are Strict In a study recently published in The Journal of Portfolio Management, Christophe Faugere, Hany A. Shawky and David M. Smith - finance professors at the State University of New York at Albany - researched the performance of money managers who oversee pension funds, endowments and high-net-worth accounts. Because most institutions work under strict investment guidelines, these academics were able to analyze performance based on different approaches to selling stocks. The result? Institutional managers who fared best were those with restrictive rules that did not allow much leeway for hanging onto stocks for emotional reasons. The managers who relied on "flexible" sell strategies did far worse. Count me unsurprised. Institutional money managers are just as prone to rationalizing as individual investors. The culprit is almost always pride, ego or emotion. As Greg Forsythe, director of the equity model development team at Charles Schwab, recently said, "Without any kind of sell strategy, emotions come into play. And emotions are almost always wrong." By adhering to a disciplined trailing stop strategy, you can mow down emotion-driven trading errors like a field full of dandelions. It cures greed. Eliminates fear. And does away with wishful thinking… as in "I hope this stock turns around and starts going the right way." Trailing stops are a very effective way of managing risk. If you don't have a sell discipline, you're probably flying by the seat of your pants. And in the world of investing, that's the number one cause of pilot error. Good Investing, Alex Today's Investment U Crib Sheet Disciplined selling in action… The Oxford Club's strict 25% trailing stop protected big profits in China Life Insurance (NYSE: LFC) this year. Alex recommended shares last May at $20.11, adjusted for a recent 2.666 for 1 split. They climbed all the way to $55.75. Then the selloff at the beginning of the year pushed the stock sharply lower. The trailing stop, however, kicked in… and members locked in gains of 107%. Bottom Line: Focus on good businesses, not the market. At investment conferences, Alex frequently asks, "If you're running a business of your own, what are you more concerned with: GDP? Or how to increase sales at your company?" As an investor, think like a business owner, not a stock picker. Each month, Alex recommends a company with superior business prospects in The Oxford Club's newsletter, the Communiqué. To learn more, here's here's how to join. For shorter-term gains, take a look at his Momentum Alert, where he identifies growth stocks on the move right now… especially those getting special attention from institutions. The Investment Club You Can't Get Into The Wall Street Journal recently reported that "there are now more than 430,000 households in the U.S. with a net worth of $10 million or more." You're about to have the opportunity to join them. Investment intelligence powerful enough to put $500,000 in your pocket over the next 12 months. Learn more here. Related Articles Investment U Archives 
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