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Penny Stocks: Can You Really Make a Fortune in Penny Stocks or Do You Simply Get What You Pay For?
by Alexander Green, Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Friday, March 2, 2007: Issue #646

At a recent investment conference, an Oxford Club member thanked me for the investment returns he’d been earning the past five years.

“But I have a question for you,” he added. “Why don’t you ever recommend any penny stocks? After all, it’s easier for a 50-cent stock to go to a dollar than for a $50 stock to go to $100.

No. It’s not.

Over the years, dozens of studies have shown that lower priced stocks don’t do better than higher priced stocks. In fact, they do considerably worse. Ironically, it’s not easier for a 50-cent stock to go to a dollar. But it’s a whole lot easier for it to go to zero.

There are other reasons why making a fortune in penny stocks is easier said than done…

3 Reasons To Avoid Penny Stocks

For starters, the vast majority of tiny, unprofitable companies are such ridiculous long shots they don’t even merit your attention. Other than that

Most companies offering penny stocks have little if anything in the way of profits, not to mention the first prerequisite: sales.
Secondly, you could drive a cement mixer through the bid/ask spread on many of these shares. If a stock is offered at 30 cents and bid at 24 cents, for instance, you’re down 20% as soon as you get your trade confirmation. (And that’s before commissions.)
Thirdly, penny stocks are thinly traded and easily manipulated.

You may buy a penny stock and see it zip higher, but then have trouble getting out. It’s pretty disheartening to know you can drive down the price of a stock simply by selling your shares at market.

Beware of Penny Stock Scammers That Promise a Fortune

There are plenty of outright scammers in the marketplace.

Often referred to as a “pump and dump,” a penny stock scam is when the insiders talk the stock up on one hand while bailing out like there’s no tomorrow on the other. That’s usually because despite the great story – and make no mistake, the stories are fabulous – the company’s business prospects are usually nil.

But penny stock promoters want you to trust them, to believe in the hot tip and ensuring fortune to be made.

If you’re going to evaluate a penny stock, here’s how they’d like you to do it. By the multi-billion-dollar market they intend to operate in. By the enormous profits they’ll generate when their technology is finally commercialized. By the proven reserves of the mining company operating next door. By the results of their Phase I trials. By any criterion you can think of but what the company is actually doing right now. Because what the company is doing right now is… usually nothing.

If you insist on verifying this on your own, at least take a few basic precautions.

How To Size Up A Penny Stock

Start by reading the company’s most recent quarterly or annual report. Does it have sales or earnings? What kind of debt is it carrying? How long has the company been in business? Who are the people behind it?

In other words, if you’re going to roll the dice, make sure it’s a genuine speculation, not just a mindless crapshoot… or worse.

Also, take a look at what the insiders are doing. If the insiders – the ones who can hardly contain their enthusiasm for the company’s business prospects – are dumping the stock en masse, you know all you need to know. Run.

Some will say I’m unduly pessimistic. (Penny stock promoters, especially.) And, clearly, a few successful companies did start out as penny stocks.

But for every success story there are at least 100 penny stocks whose charts bear an uncanny resemblance to the last flight of the Hindenburg.

In short, there are plenty of smart ways to invest your money. Toying with penny stocks and expecting to bank a fortune, in my view, is one of the dumbest.

Good Investing,

Alex

Today’s Investment U Crib Sheet

Top Tip: Focus on the business, not the stock…
The best stock returns come from companies gaining market share, introducing new products, cutting costs, buying back shares, and consistently generating a high return on equity (ROE). Most importantly, look for companies in a period of earnings acceleration.
When quarterly earnings per share increase sharply year-over-year, institutions suddenly pay a lot of attention. And rising institutional buying, or “sponsorship,” creates a supply and demand imbalance in the outstanding shares. The result is rapid price appreciation. And it can happen in a matter of weeks, sometimes days.