#383 – Kerry Wins It?

The Investment U E-Letter
Monday, November 1, 2004

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Kerry Wins It?
Plus, a way to maximize profits for the next two months regardless
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
President, Investment U

“If today’s results are the final results Wednesday morning, John Kerry will be elected as the 44th President of the United States, with 283 votes in the electoral college to George Bush’s 246.”
Monday morning comment on http://www.electoral-vote.com

Right now, it looks like Kerry could win it, assuming the polls are exactly right. But we can’t forget that margin of error

Today we’ll briefly consider the election possibilities as of this moment, and how to position your portfolio to profit.

Bush or Kerry?

According to http://www.electoral-vote.com, when you only consider the states where the lead is not questioned, “Bush leads 229 to 196, with 113 electoral votes in the tossup category.”

So “Kerry’s leads in the tossup states mean little to nothing. The turnout Tuesday will determine who wins.”

Source: http://www.electoral-vote.com (Red=Bush, Blue=Kerry, White=Tossup)

The polls have shifted in Kerry’s favor literally overnight. However, the election futures (both the Iowa Election Futures and http://www.Tradesports.com) tell a different story. Here, Bush has a 55% chance of winning versus Kerry’s 45% chance of winning.

Source: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

This election is as tight as it gets. The last election came down to 500 votes in Florida. If you want your candidate in there, get out and vote.

How to Position Your Portfolio

So how should this election affect your portfolio? In my newsletter, I’ve been writing that most professional investors have been playing it defensively ahead of the election. Now that the election is here, these professional investors will start to play it offensively in hopes of juicing their returns for the year. So you ought to consider positioning yourself for that right now, beating them to it.

Let me explain:

Investors hate uncertainty, and they’ve been worried about a terrorist attack and worried about the risk of a prolonged period of demands for recounts and other legal problems with the election. Therefore, investors have been piling into precious metals (stocks like Newmont Mining) and safe investments like Treasuries.

Here’s what I expect we’ll see: Every day that the election result becomes clearer, REGARDLESS of who wins, the stock market will rise, as uncertainty is being lifted. Gold will likely fall during these days, as well.

In short, I’ve been recommending riskier stocks (like tech stocks) for my readers. Money managers that have been on the sidelines for the last few months can’t afford NOT to be in the markets. They can’t miss any potential gains. So they’ll be back in.

Make sure you beat them in. Speculators, take trading positions in riskier stocks now, ahead of the elections, and close out those positions by the end of the year.

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Today’s IU Cribsheet

• To check out the Iowa Election Futures website, visit http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/. You can also read the last article I wrote on the election: #374 – Bush Will Win It.
• Again, I invite you to attend the 7th Annual Investment University in Delray Beach, Florida, March 9-12, 2005. You’ll learn exactly what to do with your portfolio for the next five years – including investments outside of the stock market. I’ll be there, and we’ve invited some of the world’s top financial minds to be there too, including: Alexander Green, Karim Rahemtulla, Louis Basenese, Porter Stansberry, Dr. Van K. Tharp, Mark Skousen, Eric Roseman, David Melnik, Frank Holmes, Rick Rule, Lynn Carpenter, Kathie Peddicord, Michael Masterson and many more Your IU tuition includes: Opening cocktail reception, four days of educational sessions, special briefings and workshops, continental breakfasts each morning, all coffee breaks, all “in-class” course materials and take-home reference materials. Call now to find out about early-bird discounts. To save your place at Investment U, or for more information, please call Event Director Barbara Perriello at 800.926.6575 or 561.243.2572. Last year, this event sold out completely, so please sign up before the holidays to ensure your spot.

Good investing,

Steve

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