The Investment U E-Letter: #344
Thursday, June 10, 2004 What a Famous Hamburger's Now Saying About the Dollar
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
President, Investment U At least once a day, it seems, I hear from someone that the U.S. dollar is going to crash… Generally, the fellah on the soapbox doesn't offer up much in the way of an alternative - it's just something you have to accept. Those who do offer some alternative generally say you need to have at least some of your money either in other currencies (like the euro or the yen), or in gold, but quite often the basis is flimsy. I have written a good deal about gold in these Investment U E-Letters. But we have not spoken a great deal about currencies and the dollar, and what they mean for you. So let's do so a bit today, to decide whether you should consider taking some of your money out of dollars and putting it into euros or yen… The Big Mac Factor… And What It Means to You When "experts" say the dollar is "overvalued and about to crash," what exactly is it that they're talking about? How do they know? It turns out, they don't know what they're talking about… as the U.S. dollar is not undervalued or overvalued versus the major currencies of the world, based on how much a dollar buys, versus how much a euro or a yen buys (this is based on a rather complicated calculation of "purchasing power parity" or PPP). Fortunately, The Economist magazine invented a novel way to show PPP that everyone can understand. According to the May 29, 2004 issue of the magazine, the editors invented the Big Mac Index "in 1986 as a light-hearted guide to whether currencies are at their 'correct' level." The magazine simply asks McDonald's for the U.S. dollar price of a Big Mac all over the world (McDonald's serves burgers in 120 countries). As of May 29, a Big Mac was 13% more expensive in Europe than in the States. However, in Japan, a Big Mac was 20% cheaper. My take on this is that the U.S. dollar likely won't crash or soar against these major currencies, based on this indicator. The brutal truth is that the dollar isn't much overvalued or undervalued. The currency world sure is a much more boring world today than many commentators would have you believe. It was a different story back in 1995… A Big Mac in Japan was 100% more expensive than a Big Mac in the States. Not surprisingly, over the next few years, the Japanese yen crashed. In 1995, at the yen's peak, it only took 80 yen to buy one U.S. dollar. By mid-1998, it took nearly twice as many yen to buy one U.S. dollar. If you had been smart enough to recognize the huge overvaluation of the yen in 1995 - and the Big Mac Index was one very simple way you could have done that - then you could have profited enormously as the yen weakened. Currency Trading: Much Ado About Nothing, at the Moment I don't expect you to turn into a currency trader. And the great thing is, right now, you don't need to be an expert on currencies - you don't need to transfer your money back and forth from yen to euros to dollars… why? Because the world's paper currencies are fairly in line with each other - a Big Mac costs the same in the countries of the world's major currencies. The next time a Big Mac hits $6 a burger in Tokyo, I'll let you know. For now, don't worry so much about buying euros or yen. Instead of diversifying your assets into one of those paper currencies, which are no better than the dollar, you may want to consider some type of gold investment instead, like the gold coins I've recommended in the past. Governments can all print money, but they can't print gold. Governments can print money at an equal rate… causing the exchange rates of the euro, the yen and the dollar to remain roughly the same, even while your savings is being eaten away by the money-printing of the world's indebted governments. That is why I like to have some exposure to gold. Don't become a currency trader now. It's too boring. Just know that, in relation to the euro and the yen, according to the Big Mac indicator, the dollar is in the middle… maybe just about right. Today's IU Cribsheet - The Economist magazine (www.economist.com) is excellent, and it reports on its Big Mac Index twice a year (January and May, for some strange reason). If you're already an Economist subscriber, there's a Big Mac Index section of the website, under "Markets and Data."
Good investing, Steve Related Articles: Investment U Archives
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