“Powering” the Future of Transportation
by David Fessler, Investment U Senior Analyst
Tuesday, January 17, 2012: Issue #1688
If you poll 100 people and ask them, “What fuel did the first cars run on?” An overwhelming percentage of them would naturally pick gasoline.
But they’d be wrong.
Over 100 years ago, most cars ran on electricity. It’s a little-known fact. Alas, drivers quickly wanted more range than the electric vehicle (EV) batteries could deliver. Thomas Edison, actively involved in the nascent EV industry, began working on improved battery designs.
But out in Detroit, Michigan’s Henry Ford had other ideas.
In 1908, his Ford Motor Company drove the nail into the EV coffin, when it introduced the $250 Model T. All of a sudden, gasoline-powered cars were available to the masses. But the real killer was they could travel 10 times farther than their electric counterparts.
Ford ultimately sold over 15 million “Tin Lizzie’s,” as the car was colloquially known. At the time, that was more cars than all other manufacturers combined. And the world has been running on gasoline and diesel ever since.
But that simply can’t continue.
The Automotive Industry Comes Full Circle
Crude oil is a finite resource, and some industry experts believe we may have already reached the peak of world production. I’m not going to debate that here. Much sooner than anyone is anticipating, another means to power automobiles will have to be found.
The automotive industry is doing just that. It’s come full circle, and it’s reintroducing EVs.
Let’s face it, if you could buy a car that:
- Had no engine, gas tank, or tailpipe…
- Never had to visit a gas station…
- Cost the equivalent of $1.20 a gallon to fill the “tank”…
- Could go 100,000 miles between brake jobs…
- Never required an oil and filter change…
- Never needed a tune-up…
You’d buy one in a heartbeat, wouldn’t you? Of course you would. So would a lot of other Americans, Chinese, Indians and just about anyone else who’s experienced “pain at the pump.” Not to mention the endless auto repair bills and maintenance costs.
Well, you can purchase EVs today that meets those specs. So why aren’t people rushing out and buying them in droves?
Range Bound: The EV Show Stopper
There’s just one glaring problem: Most EVs travel 100 miles or less between charges. That’s fine for errand running, but forget long-distance commuting and weekend outings.
That’s the state of EVs today. It’s led to “range anxiety” among potential customers, who fear they might be left in the lurch somewhere without a really long extension cord. It’s the biggest stumbling block in the way of widespread adoption of electric vehicles.
I’ve decided to purchase a Nissan Leaf. Since I work mainly from home, most of my driving is local. Some days, I don’t drive at all. I’m not getting rid of my other vehicle, though. It’s a truck, and I’ll just use that for when I really need the utility of it.
But for millions of Americans, especially long-distance commuters, 100 miles on a charge just won’t cut it. A recent survey done by the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that of the 231 counties with populations greater than 250,000, the average commuter spends between 30 and 40 minutes driving each way to work.
Almost 6% of Americans who live near Baltimore and New York City spend 90 minutes or more getting to the office. EVs have been a non-starter for this group. But what if EVs could go 500 miles between charges?
Battery Technology Marches On
In a few years, if the research IBM (NYSE: IBM) has been conducting pans out, they’ll be doing just that. After three years of research, IBM’s developed what it thinks will make EV range anxiety evaporate: lithium-air batteries.
In theory, lithium-air batteries can store 1,000 times more energy than batteries made using current lithium-ion battery technology.
Checkout IBM’s diagram below, and you can get an idea as to how it works:
That three orders-of-magnitude jump in energy density could quintuple my LEAF’s range to 500 miles. Or if you’re lucky enough to have a Tesla Roadster, imagine being able to go 125 MPH for over 600 miles.
Now we’re talking. Who needs gasoline and gas stations when you’ve got that kind of range?
The reason these batteries aren’t in the LEAF I’m taking delivery of next month is that they’re chemically unstable. Right now, frequent charges destroy the battery in short order.
But IBM scientists believe they’ve found solutions that will fix both of those problems. They think they can have a working prototype by next year and commercial versions by 2020 or earlier.
Talk about a black-swan event. If IBM can pull this technology off, it could turn the automotive world upside down, and ultimately have gasoline and diesel vehicles headed the way of the Dodo bird.
And who wouldn’t enjoy the longer battery life in their cellphone and laptop computer, too?
Good investing,
David Fessler
Any investment contains risk. Please see our disclaimer.
15 Responses to ““Powering” the Future of Transportation”
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David Fessler is the energy and infrastructure expert for Investment U.
I hope we will have more choices than just gasoline in the future. Every time the price of fuel goes up it causes a panic. Time will tell
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Spoken like a true engineer. Range anxiety is definitely a non starter for many.
Now wearing the hat of an economist; overall operating costs become another consideration. Under the economist’s hat: How will the overall cost of an Electric Vehicle compare to some other technologies that may drastically improve fuel efficiency, or be based on some other technology found to be more effective.
Ah, the future. Some much opportunity; and so much risk.
Carpe Diem
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While this battery tech is nice (along with several others with equal or better promise that are due to be commercialized in the next year or 5), the stickler is our antiquated, and underpowered utility grid. Several friends of mine in the electric utility industry (plus I’ve even seen it mentioned in a few “insider” utility journals/mags over the years), that if less than 3% of U.S. drivers used electric cars as their main mode of transport, it would “bring down the grid”. The capacity is currently not available for the “The Grid” to support a significant % of the population using electric cars — either now, or for the foreseeable future. So if even a few percent of U.S. Drivers want to go exlusively with electric vehicles, they best have their own personal alt-energy charging systems (about 5 to 10 KW of solar &/or wind &/or hydro) else we’re all in deep doodoo.
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Dave,
I see a few hurdles with EV’s. How long will the battery pack last before it needs to be replaced? 3 yrs? 5 yrs? 10 yrs? How much will the replacement battery pack cost when needed? Keep in mind ‘After Market’ parts are usually sold at 10x the OE price, so that could be extremely expensive to replace years later. Will the EV be upside down in value by the time a battery pack needs to be replaced? Battery storage capacity degrades over time, as more and more cycles of charge & discharge occur, resulting in decreasing range on each charge as the battery pack ages. Also, won’t temperature in Southern states result in shorter battery life there due to the higher temperatures, impacting the chemical reaction reducing battery charge and life? I would caution people that several questions will be learned in the future, and to proceed with an understanding of several risks that still exist.
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Sure would be nice, however, the power has to be put into the battery and it has to come from some where and mostly likely a home panel. If everyone plugs in I doubt the distribution system can handle the load. Can power plants ramp up?
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“Powering Future of Transp..” This is exciting; but it still leaves drivers perilously vulnerable to running out of power (whether it’s 50 miles or 500 miles) with no quick opportunity to recharge. What’s needed is a battery “pack” which can be popped out and popped in quickly, like going to a gas station. A guy in Isreal is doing just that. Needs to be done here.
Dave
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As with all articles regarding EV’s that make such great claims you leave out some really important facts. No one mentions how expensive the batteries will be to replace. Right now it is about $2500. No one takes into account how much higher your electric bill will be at home having to charge these things up every day. Take that into account and they don’t look so good. EV’s will never replace our present cars. At least not in our lifetime. Cars can be made to get well over 80 MPG but the oil companies will not allow it. They bye out and/or threaten the life of anyone who tries to put them on the market. I’ve seen cars that get over 50 MPG with my own eyes.
An honest investagation would prove this but no has the guts to do it or report it if they found out.
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I wonder how much it will cost to replace the battery when it wears out?
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For over 30 years I have been trying to give away an idea. How about batteries that were interchangeable? You drive the 500 miles, go to a station that interchanges a fresh battery with your used up one, and off you go. They re-charge it and sell the re-charged battery to the next customer. Yeah, you have to go to a station. No big deal, we have been going to stations for years. Maybe they could even wash your windshield. Now that would be a novel idea.
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Fessler’s article is good, but it fails to mention the fact that GM has resolved the limited range problem with EV’s with it’s introduction of the Extended Range EV vehicle the “Volt,” which as a plug-in hybrid, has essentially unlimited range. In fact, one study by a utility company, Duke Power, has estimated that if everyone’s personal vehicle in the U.S. were configured like the Volt, the U.S. would be using 40% less oil and would be basically off of the mid-east oil. The grid would only need to be strengthened by 10% and the U.S. would easily be in compliance with Kyoto guidelines. Of course, a plug-in hybrid like the Volt is currently expensive, but that’s because all new technology is initially expensive. At the same time, I also support the Nissan Leaf, which works quite fine as a secondary “local” vehicle. Sincerely, George, Sudbury, Ont., Canada
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Hi:’ve always wondered why all the geniuses who are working on this problem haven’t consider what might be the simplest solution for it. That is, a EV power pack composed of
a)two batteries
b)some sort of digital switching unit
c)a truck type belt driven generator
d)a PV film type panel on the roof.
And system set up to switch from the operating battery whenever its level drops or reaches 30% of full charge status. At that point, the switching unit would flip to the other battery, and the charge from the belt driven generator would start re-charging the depleted one. In between that, the rooftop PV would be adding a trickle charge as well. Long range would then be a reality.As battery technology improved, that ranging capabilitie would increase as well. Surely there must be some engineering types who could figure out how to package such a power unit. One that could yield a minimum operating capacity of 4 amp/hrs of operation at a continuous 65mph. I’m fairly certain all of it could be set up for optimum hp/wt ratio to accomplish that.
W.R.Taylorv
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The supply of electricity coming over consumer power lines is already at a critical point of total failure.
The grid is already overloaded to a point of disasterous shut downs at the slightest provocation, just add a storm causing a few downed wires and our power is gone.
So why is anybody talking about diesel and gasoline running out 25 years from now?
Hey, we got another 25 years – if we replace another 20% of liquid fueled vehicles with EV’s there will not be enough power in the lines to charge all EV’s and charging EV’s will be rationed or nobody will have power.
Add EV air conditioning in summer, and electric heat while driving up north at 40 below in the winter and you won’t have enough power to do any 100km EV range.
The better idea can be found at Blacklight Power who have come up with a system that drives a car 1500 km on one liter of water, without any pollution, and no need for an outside power source or any other fuel!
Their system for cars is described on page 53 of the Mills_FCHE-Conference-1.pdf, it can be found on the web here:
http://www.blacklightpower.com/presentations/Mills_FCHE-Conference.pdf
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The EV is an Electrical Engineer’s wet dream.
How about adding some torque to the engine like dragging the 5th wheel or, the 23 foot boat to the shore to do some fishing?
How far can you go now? The EV will remain a rich man’s vehicle because most families cannot afford the second vehicle, nor battery replacement.
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Great article! I was just wondering what equation you used to determine ‘$1.20 a gallon to fill the “tank”‘ I’d love to use that number, but would want the source before doing so. Thanks!
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1 h.p. = 750 watts
so, a 60 h.p. car would use 45,000 watts, or 45 kw
in order to get 45 kw from a standard 30 amp,
100 volt house circuit, you would need to charge 15 hours. If you used a 220 circuit, you would get by with 7.5 hours.
So, you need about 7-15 hours charging for about 1 hour of driving.
Think about it.
always,
tony
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