Electric Vehicle Wars: “Dude, Where’s My Warranty?”
by David Fessler, Energy and Infrastructure Expert
Friday, July 23, 2010: Issue #1308
As I mentioned here a few weeks ago, I’ve forked over $99 to reserve a Nissan LEAF all-electric vehicle. And as of mid July, so have over 16,100 other people, according to Nissan.
Since putting down my deposit, I’ve received numerous e-mails telling me what a great car it will be, what a great choice I’ve made for the environment, etc.
That’s when I actually get the car, of course.
So far, nobody can actually tell me when to expect delivery of the thing! When I called Nissan, the representative gave me her canned answer: “We’re releasing it in selected markets across the country late this year, followed by a general release to the entire United States next year.”
And since Nazareth, Pennsylvania isn’t exactly a humming metropolis, I doubt it will be one of the “selected markets.” There goes my hope of being the “first LEAF owner in the northeast!”
But Nissan – and other electric vehicle manufacturers – has a much bigger issue than deciding which markets to hit first…
Electric Vehicle Warranty Wars
It would appear that Nissan is in a bit of a quandary as to how to structure the LEAF’s battery warranty.
And that puts Nissan in a dilemma (or possibly a competitive advantage), given that several of its competitors have already announced their battery warranties. For example…
- General Motors announced a bold, 8-year/100,000-mile warranty for the upcoming Volt’s battery pack.
- Bordering on the ridiculous, Tesla announced a 3-year/36,000-mile warranty on its $36,000 battery pack for the Roadster. Of course, the Tesla Roadster costs over $100,000, so perhaps it’s not unrealistic to expect its battery pack to be so expensive. But it’s a fairly safe bet that Tesla Roadster owners aren’t buying the car to save a few bucks at the pump.
Given that the average all-electric vehicle battery costs around $16,000 – a significant premium over a gasoline version of the same vehicle – the length of battery warranty is a big issue for all electric vehicle manufacturers.
The Electric Vehicle Battery Conundrum
And as I worked my way through the extensive survey that Nissan sent me, the company’s issue became obvious: What time and mileage periods would I feel comfortable with when it comes to the battery’s warranty?
- 5 years/60,000 miles?
- 8 years/100,000 miles?
- 10 years, 150,000 miles?
Sounds like a fair enough question. But the problem is that the average consumer is clueless as to the performance degradation for lithium-ion batteries over time.
And Nissan has admitted that these batteries will degrade over time and you won’t get the same range after five years that you will get when you first drive the car.
The survey said: “All batteries, like those in cellphones, laptops and vehicles, lose their capacity over time. At full charge when new, the Nissan Leaf will have an approximate range of 100 miles, but can be more or less depending on usage and climate.”
What does that really mean? Let’s do a little translating:
- Usage: Using your car every day for commuting presumes you’ll be recharging it every day. Lithium-ion batteries – while better than nickel-cadmium – have a limited number of overall charging cycles before their useful life starts to degrade. Perhaps Nissan has solved that problem by limiting the charging rate.
- Climate: Lithium-ion batteries have a temperature curve that reduces their total available power when it’s colder. So if you live in Minnesota, you can bet on a much-reduced range in the winter. Plus you’d presumably be using the heater, too, which would further drain the battery.
The area where you live is a big factor in determining how long the battery will last. For example, if you live in a hilly area, you’ll need more power than in flat locations, thus decreasing the battery’s range.
So Floridians should fare well with the car on flat terrain in the winter. But they’d have a problem in the summer when the air conditioner is on. The battery will power its compressor, once again reducing range.
LEAF Versus Volt: The Electric Vehicle War Continues…
Comparing the LEAF and the Volt is like comparing apples and oranges. Both are electric vehicles, but that’s about where the similarities end.
LEAF
- It’s all-electric. There is no internal combustion engine.
- Its battery pack is 24 Kilowatts (KW), rather large for an electric vehicle. Why? Because the battery is the only source of power.
VOLT
- It’s not all-electric. There’s a small gasoline motor that drives an electric generator, which then generates power to run the electric motor. While this “extends” the Volt’s range to 340 miles, it uses gasoline to do so. Perhaps the nameplate on the car should switch from “Volt” to “Gas” when that occurs. Lipstick on a pig, anyone? Isn’t it the point for us to get off fossil fuels? Granted, using a Volt will reduce your usage, but not by a significant amount. How much better are Volt customers going to feel if they’re still pulling up to the pump?
- The battery pack is smaller than the LEAF’s, weighing in at 16 KW. It can only power the Volt for 40 miles.
Battery warranties will certainly be a competitive issue as the electric vehicle industry continues to evolve.
And as for the price? With federal tax incentives, the LEAF I have on order will be somewhere around $25,280. Pricing for the Volt has yet to be announced.
Regardless, I’m planning to stick with the LEAF… and bypassing the pumps.
Good investing,
Dave Fessler
Any investment contains risk. Please see our disclaimerRelated Investment U Articles:
- “Powering” the Future of Transportation
- Electric Vehicles: Green Power or Just Adding to the Pollution Problem?
- Electric Cars: Dream or Nightmare for the Auto Industry?
- The Electric Car Industry: The Pros and Cons of Investing in Hybrids
- 10 Electric Vehicle Trends to Watch in 2012
25 Responses to “Electric Vehicle Wars: “Dude, Where’s My Warranty?””
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David Fessler is the energy and infrastructure expert for Investment U.
Based on experience with the Toyota RAV4 Electric and millions of hybrids, the NiMH battery does not deteriorate as the lithium-ion battery does and lasts a very long time. Except for the weight advantage why do auto manufacturers opt for the inferior battery?
I too got the Nissan questionnaire which leads me to suspect that Nissan does not have confidence in its battery. I had planned to buy a Leaf but will probably lease.
I believe that Coda and BYD will offer 100,000 mile battery warranties. I am still open to buying one of them if they come to market by early next year.
Then there is the hard to believe Zoyte supposedly to be sold this year with a 185,000 mile battery warranty and a lower price than the Leaf.
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Why?
Will you be using solar or wind power to charge the batteries?
How are solar panels and wind turbines manufactured? Perhaps the manufacturers could burn dead bats and birds as fuel.
Will you be able to launch the dead batteries into deep space?
I see this as not avoiding eco-damage, but re-directing it.
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So electric cars are not the simple panacea that the green crowd and younger generation have been told.
It is not as simple as just plugging in light or toaster (these things take bread and make them, well … toast)
Not to mention if many people come home and plug in their cars at the same time each evening, imagine what that will do to the power grid. What can brown do for you takes on a WHOLE new meaning.
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What about the source of the electricity you’ll be using? Isn’t about 40% of electricity produced in the US from coal? Unless I’m wrong about that, how green is an electric vehicle?
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Why is it in all this talk about green energy and batteries we never talk about:
1. How much strain the batteries will put on the power grid and what fuel we use to power these new grid demands.
2. What are we going to do with all those batteries when they die? Are they recyclable?
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As for the 100 mile electric Leaf…
You must have the furnished docking station installed into your home electric system by an electrician and then inspected by your city. Your present electrical system may or may not work- so more wiring, work and money.
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I despaired of waiting for a RELIABLE all-electric car as my ’92 Toyota was wearing out, so bought a Prius. I haven’t had it long enough to run into battery/warranty issues, but I’m happy with getting twice the mileage per gallon. “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step” (in the right direction). BTW a book just published “The End of the Road” by Joseph McKinney and Dr. Amy Isler Gibson, published by Xlibris Corp., deals with the issues in depth. Good luck with your LEAF!
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Dave,
I am from Portland Oregon. In the Oregonian paper yesterday there was an article about a local man who has retrofitted an older Datsun with an electric motor and Lithium batteries. He can go from 0-60 in three seconds and a 1/4 mile in 11 seconds. He is drag racing with Corvettes etc. Apparently there is an organization of electric car enthusaists who race electric cars. Maybe you can race your LEAF.
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I too live in the Portland area. I belong to the same ev club (OEVA) as John Wayland the owner of the 82 Datsun B210. In this area we get our power from Hydro and wind so that’s green enough for me and my LEAF. I’ve been waiting for this kind of car since 1973. Remember the OPEC oil embargo? Odd & even days & 1/4 mile long lines to get your 5 gallons of gas. No more!!!!
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Good luck if you’re an apartment dweller (as are many in larger cities). There is nowhere to charge your car when you park. Do you think landlords are going to pay to put locking, metered electrical outlets at each parking spot? Fat chance.
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I live in The Villages, FL, we moved here in 2002 from PA—-there were 18,000 golf carts and 32,000 residents then, now we have 40,000 golf carts and 80,000 residents—-Long Story Short, I paid around 4.000 for my golf cart 8 years ago, and enjoy a range of 50 miles, its an EZ Go, I use it almost daily and always recharge it as soon as it is in the garage—–Now, there are street legal golf carts, maximum speed 27mph by FL law, insurance 250 annually—or other gas models by Ford and Chrysler—I have a 36 volt model, top speed is 20mph on the golf cart paths, its great, my driving has declined to 7,000 miles annually from 15,000 previously and two cars, as we now have 1 car and 1 golf cart—-we’re lucky so to speak to have this type of travel available to us in The Villages, FL—-It seems to me, that 33,000 less a tax credit of 7,500 or so is still a bit expensive, my neighbor bought a “Street Legal” last year 2009, and got a 5,400+ tax credit on a golf cart, battery operated, which cost around 8,000 or so—–The Volt, in my opinion it has a better range than the Leaf, is larger and more comfortable, but with one car, what both companies want you to do is to own 2 of their cars, a daily driver for work i. e. the Volt or Leaf, and then a regular gasoline driven car or hybrid for everything else—-Long story short, there are no benefits to buying either one, especially, if you have to replace the batteries, —-another bungled idea by the car companies to sell you something you don’t need, the best I would do with the Volt or Leaf is simply lease one—and then another at the end of the lease——RSC
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First of all, I would expect an engineer to know the difference between power (KW) and energy (KWh); Nissan’s claim for the LEAF’s battery is 24 KWh energy storage.
In terms of usefulness, I wonder how a 100 mile range (under optimum weather & driving conditions) can be anything to look forward to. Better have your AAA membership paid up and your cell phone handy for the tow you will soon need.
From an environmental perspective, the electric car does not make sense either, as described in my recent book CONVENIENT MYTHS (www.convenientmyths.com).
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Rather than ponder what an effective horsepower versus time curve might look like to drain 24KWh with an 80KW motor, it would seem that Dr. Kaiser’s credible reply says it all. Perhaps Mr. Fessler has already carefully considered Life with Leaf?
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Be sure you fully understand the terms of a battery warranty. It almost certainly will only cover defects, not wear and tear and normal deterioration. Also, battery warranties are pro rated so you will get a credit on the purchase of an OEM replacement at full auto dealer retail price.
In my experience it is less expensive to replace with a battery from a parts jobber selling at a competitive price than to exercise the warranty at the dealer. These guys cannot be just giving away free batteries or they would be bankrupt.
The official Toyota RAV4-EV site states that customers were unhappy with their battery packs when they reached 80% capacity. Battery life for an electric car will not be the same as for a hybrid as these use only a small amount of the battery capacity. Range and power will drop off with loss of capacity.
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We have been improving the environment for more than 50 years and have done a pretty good job of it. An electric vehicle is old technology. My grandmother had one in the early 1900s. We will never be free of fossil fuels – that stuff is in a dream world. All batteries need to be charged by fossil fuels. All wind and solar energy sources will not work without fossil fuel or nuclear power backup. None of the “clean” energy sources will work without substantial subsidies – our taxes – that those receiving the subsidies will claim salaries and a profit that depends on our tax support. Not good business or good for the country. Use all the clean energy we can without any tax subsidies or it has no place in any economy.
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a disposable battery is on the horizen———–VENDUM BATTERIES
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I noticed the error in KW vs KWhr too. Perhaps Dave was another spellcheck victim. As others point out, you should start with a battery range about twice what you need so you can use the battery as long as possible before replacement. The performance curve of the battery and warranty terms are critical economic factors.
As always, the later models should be better. If a lithium air battery can be made to work it should improve energy/weight and energy/cost by about 3 or 4. That would begin to make the car practical. If a cheap fuel cell could be developed to use natural gas directly that would also be a huge advantage. That’s probably a couple of breakthroughs away, though.
Folks like Dave who are buying and using these cars are doing important testing work for a new technology. Those who just want something cost effective and practical should probably wait a few years.
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With regard to the Leaf’s Battery Warranty period, Nissan could reduce the price of the vehicle and simply ‘lease’ the battery to the vehicle owner. In this way the battery would have an ‘unlimited warranty’ in that it would simply be replaced for a new battery as an when required. The benefit of ‘leasing’ the battery is that it would then ensure the safe desposal and/or refurbishment of used batteries.
On a final note, I’m not yet convinced that battery powered vehicles are the most cost effective and environmentally friendly alternative.
I’d really like to know the total environmental cost to 1) develop the car, 2) produce the car, 3) operate the car and finally 4) to dispose of the car.
My gut feel is that the total cost is probably more expensive and less environmentally friendly than say a small engined, low emmission gas powered vehicle.
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Just like when rice rockets were going to save so much gas and make us all rich and save the world, ijust kept on driving my 350 chevy vans. in the end i saved a lot of money and had comfort and dependibility. this time my wife has a murcury marquis, 28 mph hwy and i have a buick regal 28-30 hwy, i think i will just skip the electric hype and again bank a lot of money. i really like not having to work 2 jobs to pay for batteries and excessive electric bills. i have been retired for almost 30 years and i really like it. remember – waste not want not.
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Why buy any of these? There are too many unknowns and they could be very expensive.
I’d buy some of those 75 cent lithium mining stocks
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I will never buy an electric car for many of the reasons already cited above. Beginning with very high initial cost, short range, short battery pack life, expensive to replace battery pack, specially trained mechanics to work on these electric or electric hybrid cars. You need a place to charge them at home or the job. As mentioned, a special 220V line is run in at your home. If your power lines can not supply the required voltage & current, you need to upgrade, say from a 100Amp service to 150Amp or 200Amp .. that usually entails a new panel board and sometimes wires from the power company pole. The cost of the special plug runs about $2,000 .. add another $2,000 to update the panel capacity. And the power gird will face extra loads to charge all of these vehicles. Say hello to brownouts due to load demands, as the electric grid in the USA is not in tip top condition as far as capacity goes. What is really needed is cars with Fuel Cell technology or Natural Gas powered. Both can be made relatively safe and have equal or better range than electrics. Problem now is no one has stations in place to refuel natural gas vehicles.
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Battery/Plug in cars are only the answer if you solve the issue of recharges. The recharge time is usually at least eight hours, and the source is electricity provided by coal fired generating plants. Battery replacement is another issue. If we were really serious about getting off of foreign oil, the technology exists: Compressed Natural Gas and Clean Diesel. In Europe, 50% of the vehicles are on Diesel. Why in the world would anyone pay $40,000 for an electric car, and face a $15,000 battery replacement down the road? I don’t care what gas costs, you can’t make a cast for this. There may be a breakthrough at some point, but I’m not seeing it. In the meantime, I’ll be looking for a clean Diesel this year. I’m all for saving the environment and getting off of imported oil, but electric cars (or hybrids) just don’t make sense.
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I knew it. When I inquired with Nissan how the electric car would be heated and preheated to defrost the windshield here in Northeren Alberta,
I could not get an answer – nobody knew “as yet”.
There is also a problem with electricity supply for charging, because the wired-in supply is very limited. Neither Canada nor the USA hasw any reserve capacity in electricity distribution systems, and even generating facilities could be stressed, if there are suddenly a lot of electric vehicles.
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We don’t use our air conditioning because of the electric expense. I’ve never read anything that talks about the yearly cost of using your house electricity say from 8PM to 7AM seven days a week to charge their car for a month. Has anyone read anything about this?
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Surprising that a fellow engineer would go for this, or are you one of those for whom cost is no object? All of these considerations would kill the deal for this engineer (aerospace):
-Considering cost of battery replacement, per mile expense will be much higher than for gasoline or diesel
-Utility is very limited. If you need to go somewhere that is 150 miles away, you are screwed.
-Any environmental impact will be minimal, unless you plan to generate power with some solar panels, which is still a very expensive solution.
While I personally believe the CO2 panic is just a clever power grab by politicians, if you want to travel with minimum pollution AND cost, look into a natural gas conversion. Toyota sells one here and there.
-Not only is cost of fuel lower than gasoline or diesel, but the clean burn means lower maintenance and much longer engine life
-Much cleaner exhaust than gas or diesel
-This would justify a tank in your backyard, which you can also use for cooking and heating/airconditioning (gas heat pump), reducing both cost and pollution.
-Natural gas is plentiful domestically and will get more so. Availability is spotty, but you can find it most places.
Now if you really want to have fun, find an old ratted out Prius and refit with gas conversion and new lithium batteries. Then you would have the most efficient transportation around. Why a hybrid? It allows reasonable performance with a low power engine, and it recaptures braking, both of which maximize efficiency. The Prius also has a big trunk to hide the gas tank.
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