Comments on: Peak Oil and Petrobras http://www.investmentu.com/2009/September/peak-oil-and-petrobras.html Investment Advice and Investment Research with a Contrarian Point of View Thu, 09 Feb 2012 16:06:49 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: posconvex http://www.investmentu.com/2009/September/peak-oil-and-petrobras.html#comment-58365 posconvex Sun, 04 Jul 2010 21:46:38 +0000 http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/September/peak-oil-and-petrobras.html#comment-58365 Any discussion about oil prices over the next decade must include an attempt to quantify emerging economy demand as an important driver at the margin. Here is a simple thought experiment using Chinese demand to give some idea of the magnitude of the supply issues we face: - China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year - Transition takes 30 years - No peak in global production In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD. If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years: - Oil demand elasticity of -0.3 - Current production 84 million BOPD, current price US$ 80 - Peak production 100 million BOPD - Post peak decline rate of 3-4% If you want to try the model for yourself using your own assumptions it can be found at Petrocapita Income Trust: www.petrocapita.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=128&Itemid=86 Any discussion about oil prices over the next decade must include an attempt to quantify emerging economy demand as an important driver at the margin. Here is a simple thought experiment using Chinese demand to give some idea of the magnitude of the supply issues we face:
- China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year
- Transition takes 30 years
- No peak in global production

In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD. If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years:
- Oil demand elasticity of -0.3
- Current production 84 million BOPD, current price US$ 80
- Peak production 100 million BOPD
- Post peak decline rate of 3-4%

If you want to try the model for yourself using your own assumptions it can be found at Petrocapita Income Trust:
http://www.petrocapita.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=128&Itemid=86

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