We’re Squeezing the “Recovery” for Every Penny
by Robert Williams, Publisher
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Well, it’s official: The recession is over.
According to the latest survey of 44 economists by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), a whopping 81% said the recession is over. Following a sharp 6.4% economic contraction in the first quarter. And another 0.7% drop in the second quarter, the seers over at the NABE expect real GDP to rise at an “above trend” 2.9% clip in the second half.
However, the report also said, “The economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines.”
Gee, you think?
We’re all for optimism. But you know our thoughts on the folly of trying to predict the economy’s next move.
And quite how these economists can declare the end of the recession when more than half of them don’t expect the lost jobs to be replaced until 2012 is an absolute mystery. (Keep in mind, too, that housing remains in a state of disrepair and unemployment is approaching 10%.)
For the record, we don’t take our cues from pundits who’d rather grab juicy headlines than offer any actionable investment ideas, with true merit.
Use today’s issue as proof. In his article about spread trading, Karim Rahemtulla explains 1) why a broad strategy is the most prudent in this market, and 2) how you can leverage the options market to pull it off.
Best of luck squeezing this information from Kiplingers.
Ahead of the tape,
Robert Williams
Related Investment U Articles:
- Why Markets Move When Bernanke Says Nothing
- I’m Formally Declaring a Fiscal State of Emergency…
- 50 States… A $300 Billion Black Hole… And 10 Years “Lost”
- This Industry’s Rebound Points to a Recovering U.S. Economy
- The Double-Dip Recession: Four Reasons to Put This Talk to Bed
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In addition to once being a full-time trader of equities and equity derivatives, Robert Williams has served as the lead financial analyst for a Forbes top-50 private corporation and an analyst for the endowment of a major academic institution. He's also been profiled in such books as Trade with Passion and Purpose and Alexander Green's The Secret of Shelter Island. 
