Is General Motors the Buy of the Decade? PHEVs Part Two…
by David Fessler, Advisory Panelist
Monday, February 23, 2009: Issue #941
Who would have thought an article on the future of the automobile would have roused so many skeptics and naysayers from their winter hibernation? Certainly not me.
But the one I wrote a few weeks ago on Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) has kept our Customer Service department working overtime… fielding the firestorm of responses, both positive and negative.
Clearly Americans feel this is a hot topic and, being the glutton for punishment that I am, I decided to move from the frying pan into the fire and revisit it.In my first article, I dismissed an investment in General Motors - or any other car company for that matter – as financial suicide. However, I’m going to eat a little crow for breakfast.
The Death of the Combustion Engine
Let’s cut to the chase, and I’ll drive a stake in the ground right away: The internal combustion engine is dead.
I know that’s a bold statement. Perhaps shocking to those among us who have rebuilt one – all the while marveling at its internal workings – or have driven a pocket-rocket powered by one, reveling in the raw power.
But I think time will prove me correct. And oddly enough, it’s a car company – General Motors (NYSE: GM) – that’s helping to hasten its demise.
It’s going to be a slow death, to be sure. After all, gasoline and diesel engines have been around for over 100 years, powering ships, cars, trucks, motorcycles, battle tanks, generators, bulldozers and weed whackers.
Engineers will continue to redesign it, tweak it, shrink it… and attempt to squeeze every last drop of efficiency and power out of it. But it’s as good as dead.
General Motors & Plug-in Electric Hybrid Vehicles
Just ask Tony Posawatz, General Motors’ PHEV Vehicle Line Manager. It’s his responsibility to bring the Chevy Volt into production – and more importantly, into dealers’ showrooms – by the end of 2010.
The irony is that as his employer struggles for survival, it’s betting the farm – and its future – on a segment of the industry that it all but ignored for nearly a decade: Energy-efficient cars, led by the game-changing Chevrolet Volt.
The Volt represents a paradigm shift in automobile technology. It’s the result of desperation – combined with stark reality – that finally overcame business as usual.
Unfortunately for Tony, the odds are stacked against him. It’s an almost perfect storm of roadblocks designed to keep PHEVs from gaining traction (no pun intended).
Just consider:
- Car buyers have been running for the exits… making do with what they currently drive.
- Dealers are laden with gas-guzzling SUVs that they’re having trouble selling regardless of the price.
- Credit markets – an essential element in the car-buying process for most customers – are still very tight, making it difficult for many would-be car buyers to get a loan.
- Gas prices have been cut in half in the last six months, wreaking havoc on the economic argument for going green.
- Battery technology needs to improve to make the economics more viable, regardless of the price of oil.
All these issues aside – and that’s not to trivialize them – the Volt will be the very first, widely available car powered by plug-in technology. And while there are other manufacturers not too far behind them, it’s clearly a leadership opportunity for GM.
In order for the world’s largest car company to make it happen, Tony’s engineers, designers and mangers had to think outside the box – way outside. And they had to do it faster than they ever did before.
Lithium Batteries Hold Most Promise for PHEVs & GM
Starting with battery technology: Lithium is the current technology that holds the most promise. And after GM evaluated dozens of potential battery manufacturers, it decided the best solution was to get into the battery business itself.
Why? Because in Tony’s words, “When we get a battery pack delivered to the car line, it has to be the absolute best battery pack available anywhere… and it has to work.”
So what about the doubting Thomas’ and the naysayers that don’t think GM will ever be able to pull this off?
Tony’s not worried: “Certainly there is the element of gasoline savings associated with the car, but when prospective buyers get in and drive it, they will find it to be such a unique and pleasing experience, we’ll hook them right then and there.”
And based on the provisions contained in the recent Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, you better get in line fast if you want a tax break for purchasing one of these pump-passing beauties. After any one manufacturer first sells 200,000 PHEVs, the $5,000 individual tax credits will disappear.
Of course, by then, the prices will likely be comparable to their fossil-fuel gulping cousins, and the oil lobbyists will be redeployed schmoozing politicians for battery-technology improvement money, or something else associated with the electric car business.
Can General Motors Be King of the Hill Again?
Bottom-line: GM, if it can survive, could quickly find itself at the top of an automotive heap that will be shedding the internal combustion engine faster than anyone thinks is possible today.
And at $2 a share, investors could find themselves sitting on a 10- or 20-bagger just as quick (and I would be eating crow for the rest of my life).
Here’s to American ingenuity and GM’s survival. And to the vision of Middle East oil sheiks, scrambling to sell their oil to some other country… for peanuts.
Good investing,
David Fessler
PS. If you’d like to add you opinion to this discussion, please add it to the article comment section.
Today’s Investment U Crib Sheet
With all of this talk about plug-in hybrids, it’s probably appropriate to give a quick overview of some of the main classifications of PHEVs.
- Full Hybrid Vehicles describes a vehicle that can move from a braked or stopped point at low rates of speed without using gasoline.
- Mild Hybrid Vehicles can move from stopped position only if the internal combustion engine is engaged. The electric motor engages to support the gas engine only when extra power is needed. All hybrids, Full and Mild, require use of the gas engine to reach speeds over 25 mph
Mild hybrid systems can broken down into subcategories:
- The Stop/Start Hybrid system shuts the engine off when it would otherwise idle and restarts it instantly on demand.
- The Integrated Starter Alternator with Damping (ISAD) Hybrid system allows the electric motor to move the vehicle in addition to providing stop/start capability.
The Integrated Motor Assist (IMA) hybrid system is similar to the ISAD but has a larger electric motor and more electricity, it helps propel the vehicle better.
It’s important to understand that these categories aren’t black or white, but rather shades of grey. Every hybrid is within the spectrum of both mild and full hybrid, depending upon its battery, weight and resistance.
It’s why engine performance is so important to these vehicles and why it’s impact “weighs heavily,” (pun intended) on its clasification.
Plug-in-Hybrid Vehicles don’t actually have to be able to plug in to be called PHEV – although many models do have that ability. The PHEV gives its owners to run on electricity for most of the time, and use gasoline as a back up as the battery charge dwindles or high rates of speed are required.
Again, this is a brief overview. You can find more information at Hybridcars.com and Wikipedia.
Any investment contains risk. Please see our disclaimer.
57 Responses to “Is General Motors the Buy of the Decade? PHEVs Part Two…”
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David Fessler is the energy and infrastructure expert for Investment U.
1.Current battery technology emits more waste into atmospher than a gas vechicle in 100,000 miles – I fail to see how this green mentality can continue to egnore this fact.
2. Failing to provide a comprehensive energy plan how does anyone expect to generate enough electricty to make an impact by creating battery operated vechicles.
3.Aticle was obviously written by the same “green” people that measured ice cap.
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In spite of what GM say they appear to have chosen the wrong lithium ion battery. There is available an American designed and manufactured system that does not need water cooling, does not react violently with collision penetration, weighs less, is in a larger trapezoidal shape and so has far fewer connections and with a life in excess of 3,000 charge-recharge cycles with a 90% capacity at the end , fast charging etc. The Volt is a dead issue if it can only get a range of 40 miles under battery power.
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Fine. We burn fossil fuels to power the grid so we can recharge these cars. But, this is less efficient that burning the fossel fuel directly in the car. Green politics has canceled out the laws of thermo dynamics. Stupid Think now rules.
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GM does not make its own batteries. They are made in south korea and shipped to a factory upper michigan for final prep to ship to GM plants.
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It is my understanding that the top car producer on a global basis is now Toyota and not GM.
Furthermore, read the following:
“Chery Automobile Co., China’s largest maker of own-brand cars, unveiled its first plug-in hybrid, touting a range more than twice as far as General Motors Corp.’s planned Volt. The S18 can travel as much as 150 kilometers (93 miles) using just its batteries. 2/21, #21)” from Peak Oil Review – February 23, 2009.
We need to get our facts straight before we can compete.
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It is my understanding that this is the same car GM had ten or so years ago… Since gas is no longer at the high prices it was, I don’t think this car will do better than it did last time. It also, I understand, has less of a mileage range than it did before. You would think after ten years they would come up with a better technology and make the car MORE EFFICIENT, not less!! RF
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Plug in hypebrid, with seating for four, and a functional HVAC..??? Sounds like a real car.! They’ll have LONG lines for the Volt.. Looks like GM is spending their bailout money FAR better than our banks are.
As for the “end of the IC engine” – that’s silly thinking, at least as it applies over the course of our lifetimes.. Who cares what happens in 80+ years – none of us will be around to see who was right. Alex – you should also say the sun is going implode & take OUR universe with it – “sell your solar shares NOW before it’s too late..” Sheesh – give me a break.
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PHEVs may be the answer. But how about the millions that live in apartment buildings, condos, etc, that dont have a garage. Even if there were a place to plug in an extension cord, I’d worry about it being vandalized or stolen. (Oddly enough, that happens.) Yet I havent heard a word about this. PHEVs arent the answer to everything.
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this is what should happen to the big three auto makers, now listen this will work,the gov. should take the big three, dodge, ford,and gm,not any of the foreign related autos makers, owned by any of the three, they merge the big three, just for the rebuilding process, they will redesign and modify there cars together and the gov will be able to have better oversite on what they are doing, and how the money will be used, they merge these companys for a 5 year period in order to get bail-out money, then ounce the 5 years are up the auto-makers must show a big improvement of there auto designs, the gov can then deregulate them or have the three sign a new contract for another 5 year extention for more improvements for the american auto makers,there are to many companys that need bail-out funds ,its a better way to monitor what they are doing with the bail-out money, and after the 5 year period ,if there is no improvement at all, they will not be able to apply for any other bail-out money, this will work i have much more on this plan, thank you joemaupin@yahoo.com be
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David,
Which “Big 3″ car-company built an electric car in 1996, had people drive them for 3 or 6 months, had them re-called and CRUSHED them? Brilliant move. Is that technology being improved today?
What was the cost of each car to the consumer?
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I’d be interested to know how carmakers proposed to keep passengers warm and windows clear in a car with no combustion engine.
In the northern U.S. and especially in Canada, we start our cars in minus 45 degrees, and rely on waste engine heat to keep passengers warm and windows free of frost. We also know that even minor storms can cause cars to slip off roads – where engines are kept idling to stay alive while help arrives.
I welcome electric cars, but aren’t they good for only a southern niche market, albeit a large market? And with a vastly reduced market for the remainder of combustion-engine vehicles, won’t they be priced out of reach?
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Your argument seems to ignore the supply of electricity to fuel these vehicle.
Given that typical summer consumption of electricity already causes blackout periods in California currently offset by voluntary discount programs permiting distribution to be shut down in rotating areas. Other States have similar offline discount programs helping them maintain reliable service.
Adding to the problem is the Public/State resistance towards construction of new fossil burning power stations.
By even the most optimistic projections green powert will not be available in time to deal with a massive expansion of electric plug-in vehicles beginning in 2010. The maximum competitive estimates for green energy in their present form will never completely satisfy the forecasted demand by electric vehicles.
The only way electric vehicles can be supported with current technology is for the Nation to start developing Nuclear Power generation and this does not look favourable in the current Political climate.
This is especially true given the history of American’s love affair with the automobile and the huge commuting/travel demands on Americans.
If electric-power vehicles ever become cost effective without subsidies and popular, we will probably see a resurgence of heavier SUV vehicles, further overloading the electrical power grid.
It would, therefore, require a complete reorganization of our power generation facilities to permit massive expansion of Nuclear Power Generation to revitalize GM by means of electric vehicles in the longer term; not to mention the additional demand to service competitition expected by GM and demonstrated by its haste to market the Volt before they have properly resolved the batery issues.
There will of course be an initial euphoria with presentation of the Volt, but what happens when power tariffs increase to offset increased demand.
Also, remember the movie,”Who killed the electric car”. The underlying reasons haven’t disappeared.
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GM is going out of business, and you are going to buy the stock!!! I would think twice.
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Let’s face it, we probably never see a deal, till it’s not much of a deal anymore. The reason we had cheaper gas this last several months is probably because the oil barons found out they finally ticked people off enough, to finally invent a vehicle that won’t need their product (or arrogance) anymore. Arrogance is a great motivator – the first one, thinks they can finally be cocky, the second one knows they can & will do better. Good goin’ all you oil barons!!!
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Ive got a better investment check out m-phase technology. They have developed a new generation battery based on nanotechnolgy that will last for up to twenty years (forever battery). This new technologies will make all other batteries obsulete.
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GM had better look to Japan and S. Korea for more and better ideas.
It’s still too hidebound for my tastes, especially when it comes to GM stock.
We car buyers won’t hold our collective breath.
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Hauling around 500 pounds of toxic heavy metal is so 20th century. http://www.zeropollutionmotors.us has a car almost ready to go that runs on compressed air.
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David, If you are correct – and I tend to agree with your thought for vehicles- the politicians both at the states and national better get cracking on some way to pay for the roads. Electric vehicles do not pay gas taxes. I feel the roads should be paid for by those who destroy them. I do nnot feel big trucks are payig their fair shatre. How this will work gets back to the old adage – THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS
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David: Question Please:
Who are the main companies that will supply the lithium for these types of vehicles?
Thank you,
RP
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Watch for the new CAPACITOR power units, they could replace the battery.
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The GM “Volt’ is a joke. It is amazing that a multibillion dollar company has degenerated to the point that such a sad excuse of engineering and imagination would be set forth as “game-changing”. There is very little “thinking outside the box” or inovative engineering involved in a 40 mile range plug in. Gomer Pyle could have done this in his Mayberry garage and probably in less than 3 years.
As far as “plug-ins” compare engineering in the Tesla (the first one being offered via Sam’s Club in 2008).
Although better is the hydrogen assisted Scorpion. Now there is engineering.
If “The Volt represents a paradigm shift in automobile technology” then GM will be the leader in building buckboards.
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If the PHEV concept is to “gain traction” where are all the extra megawatts going to come from? Keeping in mind the “brown outs” and “black outs” that North America has been subjected to in recent years.
P.S.
For the sake of my children and grandchildren I hope this is the way of the future !
Gerald
Yorkton Saskatchewan,Canada
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You and the car manufacturers are acting as if you are just now inventing the idea of the electric car. My father was selling electric cars in the 20′s. The movie ‘Who Killed the Electric car’ proved that G.M. had a working model decades ago. In Canada a huge advance in batteries was made by a company whose name escapes me, and G.M. bought them out, and the advances made by this company in battery development was buried.
Now , G.M. is making a big deal out of trying to develop the technology for the electric car. If they had been working on it all these years, instead of crushing what they had, we would not be in the terrible gas / oil dependency state we are now in. A couple of years ago I wrote a note to my G.M. dealer indicating that when they had an electric car I would get one. My 2001 Olds Aurora will need to last for two more years, if they indeed fulfill their promise. Slow, slow,slow. And they have the nerve to ask for money from the taxpayer to sustain all that incompetence.
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You gotta be kidding. General Motors will go bankrupt before they become a 10 or 20 bagger.
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Your right on, Electric Cars are nice in good wheather, not too hot and not to cold. Also long distance would be a pain, you would have to recharge the battery every 200 to 300 miles.
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Until recurring problems are finally solved GM cannot, in my opinion, climb out of the hole. Health insurance and pensions, regardless of a giant bailout and improving technology, are two liabilities not going away but becoming increasingly worse. Add higher wages and the reluctance of unions to compromise into the equation and GM’s ship is sunk.
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The natural gas car or truck or the liquid NG will be quicker and with less cost than the prepose answer from GM or any other car company. I drove one of the cars in South America in 1958,you drove on reg. gas then switched to the other without any problems. We had a fleet of 100+ cars at the time. I guess that most people have forgotten those days, or its old tech and some one wants to make more money.
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GM never succeeded in producing a car (its core business) that held a threat to the best cars ever built. So no investor can trust them to develop the best battery now for their misrable cars.
I presume Warren Buffet knows this and so made a wiser decision when he invested USD 230 million in a Chinese battery expert.
Buy American may be partriotic, but in these days it is not good for your purse, short term or long run.
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PHEV’s may in fact have a future but does GM have deep enough pockets to hang in long enough to make it happen? I could see them spinning that business unit off to keep afloat for another couple months, in which case those that believe in the future of battery power would need to invest in the company that buys it, and maybe coal.
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Interesting but flawed. Internal combustion also includes jet engines and marine. Let me know when you are going on the maiden flight of an electric airplane. It will be a long time before we pass off the internal combustion engine. Hybrids may help make the transition but it will take quite a while before pure plug in vehicles will work year-round anywhere north of Las Vegas.
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I simply don’t agree. My vote is on biodiesel. Research on hungry algae and the availability of “junk” weeds offers a much better alternative. Further I noticed in a recent article about the payback time for hybrids at about $1.90 a gallon is about the year the batteries will be due for replacement. Thus, I view the current generation of hybrids as a big joke.
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Great, if GM can pull it off !!………….BUT, a far better option is to build compressed air cars.The French have developed one that runs on 3000 bar and can be topped up at any gas station with an air hose. It’ll run at up to 60mph with a range of around 100 miles between tank recharging.
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Just follow Boone Pickens, he knows what it will take to lower dependence on imported oil i.e. the use of domestic natural gas.If America doesn’t watch it most of our manufacturing we’ll be gone and we will end of giving each other a heart by-pass.
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Nice article. It would be nice to see one company finally make an all electric vehicle. But GM has an advantage anyway. They were the ones building the EV1. 10 years ago. Why they scrapped the whole program, I’ll never know. But if they can do the same again, seems EV1 was a pretty nice ride, maybe they wont fold under.
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Thank you for your article in support of the American Auto Industry. We currently produce cars and trucks that almost across the board get better gas mileage than their foreign competition and cost significantly less to repair. You mention that car owners are making due with what they have now. That will not be that way for long. As their vehicles wear out, they will be buying a replacement. There is a political party in Washington that wants to see the American Auto Industry out of business before that happens. I guess they want us to buy our cars from Korea, China or India. I don’t think that it is very patriotic. I also think we will find these imports more expensive without American competition. I think that political party needs to start supporting America or they should leave it. Sincerely, Harold Jones
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How can a car which uses plug in be greener and save GM-
Battery = Electricity = Coal fire plant… Sorry if this is GM get out of jail free card then i’m sorry it bye bye GM… maybe GM should look at Honda new enviro car based on hydrogen. If the big oil companies would jump at the opportuntiy to charge us $1 to fill our car up with water & air
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Have you tried to buy a Mountaineer or Navigator by Ford. Where’s the glut. They just are not available.
Don’t believe me call your local Lincoln Mercury dealer.
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My impression is not that GM has been ignoring the importance of developing fuel-efficient cars, but that GM has not made an effort to tell the public what is already available. The new Volt will be great, if electrical power grids are adequate to feed all the plug-in cars every night. However, I drive a 2005 Malibu, and regularly get ~35mpg highway (43mpg once on a fairly level road, holding the speed at about 55mph!).
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Why buy a 40 mile range Volt for $40,000, when you can buy a 60 mile range BYD(china) for $23,000? There will be big winners in the PHEV, but GM will NOT be one of them. Any financial progress by GM will be met by more UAW intransigence and will throw them right back into bankruptcy.
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A few facts:
1. US needs 38,000 MW just to replace existing aging power plants that reached the end of projected lifetime.
2. IC engines transform heat into mechanical energy twice as efficient as coal, oil or gas plants. Fossil fuel plans produce about 70% of electrical energy in US. Switching to electrical cars would mean at least 50% increase in CO2 output with the existing technology. (It would take decades to build plants and upgrade the grid)
3. Uranium reserves will last no more than 30 years at current pace. Going nuclear isn’t an option. (Thorium is more promising, but the technology isn’t ready yet for mass production)
4. Alternative sources of energy cannot fill the current gap between capacity and consumption, let alone millions of plug in cars.
The only hope is to dramatically decrease the consumption of electrical energy in houses and commercial buildings. The average household could save 70% of electric energy with the fraction of money needed to increase the capacity. This is the true investment opportunity and the prerequisite for mass adoption of plug in cars. It will come, but too late for GM.
Only GM is not the one. If for nothing else, but workers’ pensions that no profit can pay. GM will sink and there’s nothing under the sun that can be done to prevent it.
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I won’t write this to the moron that wrote the article about the internal combustion engine being dead. His stupidity is so gigantic he could never overcome the simplest facts I present to him. I write this to others (with the exception of the global warming crowd who I’m sure are on a plane with this author).
In the first place most of us understand that the liquid fuel in our tanks in any moving vehicle with an internal combustion engine is only half the energy component that fuels our cars and trucks. That other component is the air surrounding us ALL THE TIME. Without it, fuel doesn’t burn. Every electric vehicle out there at the outset has to overcome this disadvantage of carrying ALL its energy load on board. The other MAJOR disadvantage of electrics is their failure to go long distances. Go to Grandmas six hundred miles away and somewhere along the line you have to refuel with an electric or a internal combustion engine. With the internal combustion engine that is not a problem regardless the liquid fuel used. With an electric you either have to change about six hundred pounds of batteries in ten minutes or find some way to charge them in that same time. Right now that’s a major, major problem.
Electrics have a place as commuter vehicles in large cities but anywhere else you have to go longer distances they’re not going to cut it for a very long time.
Electrics will fail on a second tier level if the idiot Obama gets his way in closing coal fired plants. Those coal fired electiric plants now power most at least of the midwestern electric grid. Personally I don’t think what we have left of a thinking public will ever let him do it but the rest of the greenie morons out there did elect a house, senate, and executive branch of government that wants and believes in global warming, greener earth or else tragedies and saving polar bears that don’t need saving. This still could happen.
Energy is energy. You get it different ways but it always costs. Most comes from the sun, gravitational compression of old plants and animals (oil & coal), growing fuel plants, earth core magma heat, wind, nuclear, etc. It all costs. A BTU is a BTU. It takes X BTU’s or Y kilowatts to move a vehicle down the road. That will never change.
The internal combustion engine has been around for a long time and it will continue for an equally long time because part of it’s fuel is all around us all the time and there are many many alternative liguid fuels to combine with it cheaply and with more flexability.
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Sounds like a desparate plea for more investment money to be squandered away.
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Great article. I’ve been saying this for a while now. Not only would we lose our need for foreign oil, but we wouldn’t pollute, we wouldn’t buy gas, and N. American job creation would grow exponentially.
Down with the internal combustion engine! Let’s stop sending our money across the world.
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I agree that the demise of the IC engine is nearing. Electric vehicles are becomming more cost-competitive. However, I do not believe that GM is the company that is going to do it. GM is a dead organization being carried along by their own inertia. Every other bold idea has been squelched, like GM Hughes Electronics, Saturn, & Electronic Data Systems, name a few. I believe that Volt will be neutered or worse.
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Been in the the auto salvage business for 30 years.I cut cars up for the auto industry for resale to the auto body shops. The Jap and German cars are the biggest profit makers for me, because they are basically a huge “bag of JUNK”
I do not allow anyone in my family to even sit in these pieces of garbage.
Whos’ writing these articles about these foeign cars? Sounds like they should rate baby carriages-they have NO idea what a car should be.
The so called experts should ask us in the salvage business how they feel. You can be sure it won’t be some Jap or German Junkbox—
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Finally, somebody other than myself can see the demise of the internal combustion engine! However my idea is favoring the evolution of the fuel cell. The fuel cell has been around since 1830′s, and once it is refined should provide our power.
Edwin Black wrote “Internal Combustion” a book that I would recommend to everybody.
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The problem for GM is very simple, but the solution is complex. The problems are their union
and their government. Whoever can solve these
problems is smarter than most of us.
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In reading the above 46 responses to the PHEV article, it is clear that many are rife with gross misconceptions. To understand the place the electric vehicle can and will have in our society one needs first to know that the average RT commute in the US, for example is roughly 40 miles. Therefore, the EV will be largely a commute vehicle for many years. With 100M EV in operation we will be completely independent of foreign oil.
Concerning the necessary installed electric power capacity to recharge these EV’s, it needs to be understood that currently most power plants run at around 20% capacity during the wee hours of the night and in fact could run more efficiently if they could operate at a constant power output 24 hours a day. In my electric cooperative there is currently enough reserve capacity to recharge an electric vehicle overnight for every single household. Consequently it will be years if not decades before one single kilowatt of new capacity needs to be installed to handle the recharging of electric vehicles.
When new electricity producing capacity does need to be added, it should be nuclear. One (among many) of the great trajedies of the last election is that BO will likely halt all development of nuclear power. Jimmy Carter did this back in the late 1970′s and put the country 3 decades behind in this industry. The statement that there is only enough uranium for 30 years is blatantly incorrect. In fact with the use of nuclear breeder reactors there would be essentially an infinite supply of fissiable nuclear fuel.
Now with regard to battery technology, there is currently one battery that meets every requirement for EV’s and that is the Altair lithium titanate spinel battery. Here are the characteristics of this battery: 1)proven absolutely safe (cannot blowup or burn), 2)more than 10,000 deep discharge cycles (thus 30 year lifetime, 3)exhibits no memory, 4)wide operating range of temperatures at high effiency(-20F to above 140F, thus doesn’t need coolers or heaters).
55)rapid recharge ( 10 Minutes, also overnight as wwell)
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I love how people with no understanding of basic science are forecasting the demise of the internal combustion engine. Instead of wasting his money on GM, the author should buy a physics book so he can learn how outrageously impossible the electric car is on a large scale. And what an environmental disaster it would be, having all that oil being replaced by coal. Or may be he wants to build 4000 new nuclear plants? Either way, there is significant doubt that enough copper exists on the planet (not to mention uranium) to build out the necessary electrical grid. Seems like common sense went out of fashion a long time ago. Next thing you know he’ll be telling us to buy Citi Bank.
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In reading the above 46 responses to the PHEV article, it is clear that many are rife with gross misconceptions. To understand the place the electric vehicle can and will have in our society one needs first to know that the average RT commute in the US, for example, is roughly 40 miles. Therefore, the EV will be largely a commute vehicle for many years. With 100M EVs in operation we will be completely independent of foreign oil.
Concerning the necessary installed electric power capacity to recharge these EV’s, it needs to be understood that currently most power plants run at around 20% capacity during the wee hours of the night and in fact could run more efficiently if they could operate at a constant power output 24 hours a day. In my electric cooperative there is currently enough reserve capacity to recharge an electric vehicle overnight for every single household. Consequently it will be years if not decades before one single kilowatt of new capacity needs to be installed to handle the recharging of electric vehicles.
When new electricity producing capacity does need to be added, it should be nuclear. One (among many) of the great trajedies of the last election is that BO will likely halt all development of nuclear power. Jimmy Carter did this back in the late 1970′s and put the country 3 decades behind in this industry. The statement that there is only enough uranium for 30 years is blatantly incorrect. In fact with the use of nuclear breeder reactors there would be essentially an infinite supply of fissiable nuclear fuel.
Now with regard to battery technology, there is currently one battery that meets every requirement for EV’s and that is the Altair lithium titanate spinel battery. Here are the characteristics of this battery: 1)proven absolutely safe (cannot blowup or burn), 2)more than 10,000 deep discharge cycles (thus 30 year lifetime, 3)exhibits no memory, 4)wide operating range of temperatures at high effiency(-20F to above 140F, thus doesn’t need coolers or heaters),
5)rapid recharge(10 Minutes, also overnight as well, 6)high power density(thus can deliver power rapidly. As with any new battery technolgy, the cost will drop dramatically with mass production.
This battery is currently being tested in vehicles with more than 100 mile range. Since the average commute is 40 miles RT, EV’s with this battery will satisfy 90% of all commuter trips with plenty of power for accessories,i.e. lights, heating, cooling, etc.
The impression given by GM that the needed battery technolgy is still years away is totally incorrect and has been put forth in my opinion to delay the introduction of EV’s into the market.
That said the EV could truly be the salvation of the US automobile industry if only they would embrace it whole heartedly.
Finally, the idea that the IC engine will disappear any time soon is again false. People will use their SUV’s, campers, pickup trucks, etc. for vacations and long distance trips for decades, but this only accounts for roughly 10% of the driving requirements. The EV combined with nuclear energy can usher in the greatest period of prosperity this nation has ever seen.
Unfortunately, we may have to suffer through 4 years of economic retrenchment until this can be realized.
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Hey first off, you are missing the correct information on the Volt. Please let me correct you. The Volt will drive 40 +- Miles on Battery Only…THEN…the small Combustion Engine will kick in, and produce electricity…not run the Volt like a traditional Combustion Engine…it will still be highly efficient…I am hoping that the final Combustion Engine part of this is a Flex Fuel Engine. And you can fill it up as needed whether it is Flex Fuel or Traditional…until you can plug in to recharge…
Then I can buy Ethanol produced by Coskata Process…Ethanol from Garbage, YES Garbage…and we as Americans can MAKE GARBAGE….and we already PAY to transport it…yes another GM Partner…Coskata….Start reading labels and buying what is made in America.
Also the UAW had already made concessions before the “bailout” funds were given..this new contract had starting wages for new hires at $14/hr, plus benefits, 401k, not traditional “pension” I think it takes effect April 2009…and the “bailout” funds have also now taken out the jobs bank. GM/UAW had agreed to shift all the Health Fund responsibilty to the UAW, GM had to pay a huge number of Billions into a fund..but much of the legacy costs were already starting to be dealt with BEFORE the “bailout” even started.
Have you driven in one of the 100 GM Fuel Cell Vehicles being tested on the Road? The are in DC, LA…these have been being tested by all sort of normal folks for the last year…
Take a Positive View…Take a Positive Attitude..
Personally if I could afford to buy a brand new Chevy Suburban LTZ and take to to the wizard of Witchita…and have it made into a BioDiesel Electric like Neil Young (Old Lincoln Continental) and Arnold Swartzeneger (His Jeep Wagoner) did..I would do it in a heartbeat…This guy turned a Hummer into a 50mpg vehicle…BioDiesel…
I would love a 100mpg Chevy Suburban…the Suburban is an outstanding vehicle for a family.
Yes Telsa are cute…but the battery replacement after 100K Miles is somewhere between $19,000 and $24,000. And who will recycle these batteries?
Fisker has a couple of nice sports cars that get up and go…and go quite a ways on All Electric…
I still think Flex Fuel…Ethanol from Garbage is the way to go…can be made for about $1/Gallon here in the US…from OUR Waste…how cool is that..
There are also a bunch of other Ethanol processes that don’t use Corn and food sources…they use basically garbage or left overs from other processes..these are so simple to embrace..
http://www.coskata.com/
Thermal Solar Plants in Neveda Daytime Power Generation, a Plant that was 90 square miles in size would power the US…Geothermal Plants taping into hot springs and even Lava flows….24/7/365 Electricity…Solar on Homes…Fuel Cells at Homes…Wind Generators where they work..
Change all your Bulbs to LED Bulbs ( Cree-Lighting ReInvented, Permlight, go to 1000.bulbs.com and look) or to Dim-able CFL Bulbs…save 70-90% of your lighting bills…our house is completely LED 2700˚K…and just great..
Conservation, New LED Bulb Technology, Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Thermal Solar…these will all take loads off the Grid..
Start using your dollars and brains to make a difference..
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On the ability of our power grid to handle electric vehicles: blackouts and brownouts are not due to insufficient overall capacity. They are due to insufficient *peak* capacity. Peak load on the grid occurs during the middle of the workday, which is when most people have their cars sitting in a parking lot at work. Electric vehicles would be charging overnight, which is when there is far more capacity available.
On the ‘death’ of the ICE: agreed with other posters that it won’t go away completely. However, bear in mind that the *vast* majority of drivers drive their cars less than 60 miles a day in the US. The Volt’s 40 is a bit skimpy, but assuming that 60 miles is well within reach, that would be the deciding factor for a lot of people (along with the ultimate cost of the vehicle, obviously). Note that this also makes the case stronger for investing in solar panels for one’s home – there are a lot of novel ways to finance them now compared to even five years ago, and the total cost has dropped quite a bit as well.
On the quality of foreign cars: gregt’s expert opinion on ‘Jap Junkboxes’ not withstanding, I beg to differ. I have only owned Hondas my whole life, I have driven them well north of 250k miles with the only problem being a blown radiator, and my maintenance costs are basically nothing. If that’s junk, then I guess I love junk.
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It absolutely amazes me how everyone misses the only real system that works! DEISEL/ELECTRIC. VW has one that has plugin capability and 113 M.P.G.!!!available in 2012. check it out at tdiclub.com. german cars are definitely NOT junk.I also wonder how battery powered cars are going to be heated or cooled, and where does everyone think that electricity comes from?? the internal combustion engine is definitely NOT DEAD
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I would hope they succeed but I would not bet on it. The cost of batterys and GM’s poor reputation for quality and follow through will probably wipe out the funds before they can prove their excellence. I would bet on Honda’s engineering and execution skills! Best to run them through bankrupcy and hope they survive.
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Remember this…we’ve refined the IC engine now for over 100 years. We’re not going to come up with a technology that’s going to replace all the conveniences of the IC engine overnight. From what I’ve read in the 40+ responses it looks like a lot of people have forgotten that. I like the concept behind the chevy volt as it is a hybrid that significantly reduces oil/gas consumption, without sacrificing all the benefits of the IC engine. It sounds like a great move in the right direction to me. Remember the main goal….TOTAL 100% INDEPENDENCE FROM FOREIGN OIL. We can’t have our economy dependent on foreign oil, period. There’s too much at stake. Our foreign policy should not and cannot be influenced by foreign oil! It’s time for the US automakers to realize this is their time to reclaim the American auto market and in doing so reclaim America as the true leader of the world as we once were and can be again. I’m rooting for you Ford, GM, and Chrysler! You’ve been the heart and soul of the American economy for 100 years, give or take a few. Now is the time for all good automakers to come to the aid of their country! DETROIT MICHIGAN, WE NEED YOU NOW!!!
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There is no problem with the tecnology. jg
http://www.mpgomatic.com/2008/11/09/electric-ford-f-150/
The 4WD PML Flightlink F-150 has a range of approximately 100 miles
http://www.sdearthtimes.com:80/et0101/et0101s14.html
reports that aluminum-air fuel cells can extend the range of an electric van from 75 km using lead-acid batteries to 300 km. They note that the fuel cells are over seven times more energy dense by weight and occupy less than one-seventh of the space of commercial lead-acid batteries.
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compared to lithium-ion and nickel cadmium batteries, the aluminum-air battery provides an estimated 75 times more energy density plus greater output over a longer battery lifetime.” To date, the Aluminum-Power battery has achieved 800Wh/kg [watt-hours per kilogram] with peak currents of 7 amps recorded. Aluminum-Power scientists believe that 4,000/Wh/kg is theoretically possible
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GM will not survive until its get out front with its product engineering. This money, just spent , is a political window dressing… DO THE DAMNED ENGINEERING TO GET COMPETITIVE !!!!!
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